Postal Days of Service

Will the panel examining Canada Post's operations recommend that it change the number of days of service?
Yes: 40%

There have been some suggestion that Canada Post might reduce the number of days of service (see article here).  This seems to be more likely than postal banking, but far from a sure thing.

Trump Tower Toronto

Before the end of June 2017, will the Trump Tower in Toronto be renamed?
Yes: 60%
(The renaming must remove Trump's name from the tower. A name like "T tower" would count for this purpose)

The Trump tower in Toronto is close to a sale, according to some recent reports (see article here).   It has been suggested that the new owner might change the Tower's name, although the Trump Organization claims that they can't do so.  Given the change in ownership, it seems likely to me that the tower will be renamed, even if the new owner retains some connection to the Trump Organization.  It is also possible that tower will be renamed eventually, even if it is not renamed immediately after the sale.

Mooney's Bay Playground

Before the end of 2016, will construction begin on the new proposed playground at Mooney's Bay?
Yes: 85%

The City of Ottawa recently entered into an agreement to build a new playground in Mooney's Bay Park, to some criticism (see articles here and here).  On Wednesday, city council decided to not debate the new playground.  Construction is to start in July, so it seems very likely that it will start by the end of the year.  Still, it is possible that Council will change its mind, and halt or delay construction.

Ontario Budget Deficit 2017

What will be the Ontario government budget balance for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, according to the 2017-2018 budget as originally tabled?
A surplus of more than $5 billion: 10%
A surplus of less than $5 billion: 40%
A deficit of less than $5 billion: 25%
A deficit of more than $5 billion: 25%

The Ontario government is projecting a modest surplus for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, after a projected deficit of $4.3 billion in 2016-2017 (see articles here and here).  The projection seems reasonable, according to Ontario's Financial Accountability Officer.  This year, the government's projected deficit for 2016-2017 decreased from the 2015 budget to the 2016 budget.

I think the most likely outcome is a small surplus.  However, unexpected events could lead to a relatively large deficit, or at least a small deficit.  A large surplus seems unlikely.

Canada Post Banking

Will the panel examining Canada Post's operations recommend that it enter the banking business?
Yes: 25%
(If the panel is dismissed without offering any recommendations, that will count as a No)

The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here).  The postal union has suggested that Canada Post re-enter the banking business.  The government has not ruled out this suggestion.  Based on my general tendency to guess the continuation of the status quo, I think that the panel will not recommend that Canada Post enter banking.

Canada Post Community Mailboxes v2

Before the end of June 2017, what will be officially announced regarding Canada Post's community mailbox conversion program?
Community mailbox conversions will resume: 20%
No Announcement will be made: 45%
Home delivery will be restored in some areas: 35%
(see my post Canada Post Community Mailboxes for conditions)

The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here).  Given the amount of time that has passed, it now seems more likely to me that the government will ultimately decide for the status quo for home delivery.  Contrariwise, continued community mailbox conversions seem less likely.

Electoral Reform Legislation

Before the end of June 2017, will federal electoral reform legislation be introduced?
Yes: 60%
(Legislation to hold a referendum would count, but legislation that makes small changes to the electoral system would not.)

The federal government has formed a committee to study electoral reform options (see article here).  It had previously promised to introduce legislation within 18 months of forming the government.  At this point, that seems fairly ambitious, although still possible.

Photo Radar Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the province approve the City of Ottawa's request to use photo radar?
Yes: 70%
(If the city withdraws the request before the province makes a decision, that counts as a "No",  The province does not need to approve the request unconditionally for a "Yes".)

The City of Ottawa is asking the province for permission to use photo radar in school zones (see article here).  The province has expressed willingness to approve such proposals.  My sense is that the City's request will probably be approved in the relatively near future.

Presto Rate Ottawa

What rate will Metrolinx and the City of Ottawa agree on for Presto services?
3% or less: 10%
Between 3% and 5%: 20%
Between 5% and 7%: 40%
Between 7% and 9%: 20%
More than 9%: 10%
(This question will close when an agreement is reached.  If the parties fail to reach an agreement by the end of 2017, the question will be voided.  The percentage is based on the percentage of Presto fares; if an agreement is reached on some other basis, it will be converted to a percentage of Presto fares.)

The City of Ottawa and Metrolinx are currently in discussions regarding the fee paid for Presto services (see articles here and here).  The City currently pays 2% of Presto fares to Metrolinx,  Metrolinx wants 10%, and the city has budgeted 4% going forward.  The TTC pays 5.25%.  It seems most likely that the City will eventually pay a fee in the 5% to 7% range, although it is possible they might end up paying more or less than that.  A fee of less than 3% seems unlikely, as does a fee of greater than 9%.

Civic Hospital Site

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government and the Ottawa Hospital announce a new site on the Central Experimental Farm for the Civic Campus?
Yes: 40%
(A specific site must be chosen, and the announcement must have the agreement of both parties.)

The Ottawa Hospital is currently considering 4 sites for a new Civic Campus, 3 of which are on the Central Experimental Farm (see article here).  I'm not sure what the expected timeline is to be, but it seems likely that a site on the Farm will eventually be chosen.  However, it may not happen in the next year.

MTS Sale v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the proposed acquisition of MTS by Bell close?
Yes: 70%

Bell has announced that it plans to take-over MTS, a Manitoba telecom (see articles here and here).  The deal is expected to close in "early 2017".  There seems to be some political opposition to the deal due to competition concerns.  Still, it seems more likely than not that the deal will close on schedule.

Mitel-Polycom Merger

Before the end of 2016, will the proposed merger between Mitel and Polycom close?
Yes: 85%

Mitel and Polycom have announced that they plan to merge (see article here).  The merger is expected to close in the third quarter, but still needs approval from regulators and shareholders.  My sense is that this approval is largely a formality.  However, the merger could still be called off if market conditions change significantly.

Post-Mortem: Elections

• The Saskatchewan Party won the Saskatchewan Election (also see my post Saskatchewan Election v2).  Last September, I said they had a 90% chance of winning, which I recently increased to 95%.  I might have been slightly overconfident.
• The PCs won the Manitoba Election (also see my post Manitoba Election v2).  Last September, I said there was an 80% chance that they would win the election, which I increased to 91% in March.  These numbers seem about right.
• Mulcair lost the NDP leadership review (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In December, I said there was a 65% chance that Mulcair would lose.  That might have been a bit low, given the low level of support received by Mulcair.

Post-Mortem: Courts

• Jian Ghomeshi was acquitted in his recent trial (see my post Jian Ghomeshi Verdict).  I said there was a 65% chance that this would happen, which might have been a bit low given how strongly the conventional wisdom at the time suggested that Ghomeshi would be acquitted.
• Mike Duffy was acquitted on all counts (see my posts Mike Duffy Verdict and Mike Duffy Jail Time).  I said there was a 15% chance that he would be completely acquitted, and a 65% chance that he wouldn't face jail time.  The 15% estimate might have been too low, although complete acquittal didn't seem like what the conventional wisdom suggested at the time.
• The Supreme Court found mandatory minimum drug sentences unconstitutional (see my post SC Drug Sentences).  Last May, I said there was a 70% chance that this would be the Supreme Court's finding, which may have been a bit conservative.

Post-Mortem: Business Questions

• Allstream was sold to Zayo Group (see my post Allstream Sale).  Last September, I said there was 65% chance that Allstream would be sold by the end of this August, and a 15% (unconditional) chance that Allstream would be sold to some company other than Rogers, Bell, or Telus.  As usual, I might have given the "Other" option too small of a chance.
• Rexall is being acquired by McKesson Corp. (see my post Rexall Acquisition).  Last September, I said there was a 15% chance that Rexall would be acquired by the end of 2016.  I'm not sure this wasn't a bad estimate; acquisitions aren't that common, and there didn't seem to be any specific information suggesting that Rexall was going to be acquired soon.
• The Canadian Oil Sands Acquisition by Suncor has closed.  Last October, I said there was a 50% chance that Canadian Oil Sands would be acquired by the end of 2016, and a 20% chance that Suncor would acquire them.  Given that Suncor was actively pursing Canadian Oil Sands at the time, these numbers may have been a bit low.
• The Corus-Shaw Deal has closed.  In March, before it received regulatory approval, I said there was a 75% chance it would close, which seems reasonable.
• The CP-NS merger has been called off.  I said there was a 20% chance the merger would go through in 2016, which seems reasonable.