Post-Mortem: Miscellaneous

• The City of Ottawa has asked the province for permission to use photo radar (see my post Photo Radar Ottawa).  In March, I said there was only a 30% chance that this would happen, which I think might have been a reasonable estimate, given the opposition to the idea at the time.
• Construction has started on the Mooney's Bay Playground.  I said there was an 85% chance that this would happen in 2016, which was a good estimate.
• The City of Toronto has passed a taxi reform bylaw (see my post Toronto Taxi Reform).  In April, I said there was a 30% chance that this would happen, which might have been a slight underestimate.
• The M3MSat Launch has taken place.  Last July, I said there was a 70% chance it would be launched before the end of 2016.
• Certain New Brunswick Liquor Limits were found to be unconstitutional.  I said there was a 20% chance that this would happen, which might have been too low.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 50%

Since my last post, more support has been expressed for supervised injection sites (see article here).  I am thus increasing my forecast.  However, the timeline for this question is still fairly tight.

Sinkhole LRT Cause

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa officially state that LRT construction was responsible for the recent Rideau Street sinkhole?
Yes: 25%
(If the city officially rules out LRT construction, that counts as a No.  "Partial responsibility" counts)

There has been some speculation that the Rideau Street sinkhole was caused by LRT construction (see articles here and here).  The cause has not yet been determined, but LRT construction was going on in the area.  Officials have said LRT construction is unlikely to be the cause, but it has not been ruled out.

Rideau Street Re-opening

When will Rideau Street re-open to buses?
Before June 16th: 25%
Between June 16th and June 22nd: 40%
After June 22nd: 35%
(Re-opening to buses in a single direction counts)

Rideau Street was closed yesterday due to a sinkhole (see article here).  It is expected to open again in "one to two weeks".  I tend to think a later opening is more likely than an earlier one.

Post-Mortem: Ottawa Politics

• Ottawa City Council voted to legalise ride-sharing services (see my posts Ride-Sharing Legalization and Ottawa Taxi Reform).  Last May, I said there was a 25% chance of the city or the province passing a law to legalise ride-sharing services by the end of 2016.  That may have been too low, given that the city was conducting a taxi review at the time.  After the City of Ottawa community and protective services committee approved a ride-sharing bylaw, I said there was an 80% chance the by-law would be passed by City Council, which seems reasonable.
• The Rendez Vous LeBreton proposal (which has the explicit cooperation of the Ottawa Senators)  has been selected by the NCC (see my posts Senators Lebreton Flats and Lebreton Flats Redevelopment).  Last January, I said there was a 25% chance of the proposal with Senators involvement being chosen, which may have been slightly too low (although there rumours of 4 or more proposals at that time).  Last December, I said there was a 50% chance of the  Rendez Vous LeBreton proposal being selected.  Overall, the process was smoother than I expected.
• The Rideau Carleton Raceway lockout has ended (see my post OLG Lockout v2).  I said there was a 25% chance it would end in May or June, and a 60% chance it would end before the end of June.  The timing is thus about what I expected.

Mooney's Bay Playground

Before the end of 2016, will construction begin on the new proposed playground at Mooney's Bay?
Yes: 85%

The City of Ottawa recently entered into an agreement to build a new playground in Mooney's Bay Park, to some criticism (see articles here and here).  On Wednesday, city council decided to not debate the new playground.  Construction is to start in July, so it seems very likely that it will start by the end of the year.  Still, it is possible that Council will change its mind, and halt or delay construction.

Photo Radar Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the province approve the City of Ottawa's request to use photo radar?
Yes: 70%
(If the city withdraws the request before the province makes a decision, that counts as a "No",  The province does not need to approve the request unconditionally for a "Yes".)

The City of Ottawa is asking the province for permission to use photo radar in school zones (see article here).  The province has expressed willingness to approve such proposals.  My sense is that the City's request will probably be approved in the relatively near future.

Presto Rate Ottawa

What rate will Metrolinx and the City of Ottawa agree on for Presto services?
3% or less: 10%
Between 3% and 5%: 20%
Between 5% and 7%: 40%
Between 7% and 9%: 20%
More than 9%: 10%
(This question will close when an agreement is reached.  If the parties fail to reach an agreement by the end of 2017, the question will be voided.  The percentage is based on the percentage of Presto fares; if an agreement is reached on some other basis, it will be converted to a percentage of Presto fares.)

The City of Ottawa and Metrolinx are currently in discussions regarding the fee paid for Presto services (see articles here and here).  The City currently pays 2% of Presto fares to Metrolinx,  Metrolinx wants 10%, and the city has budgeted 4% going forward.  The TTC pays 5.25%.  It seems most likely that the City will eventually pay a fee in the 5% to 7% range, although it is possible they might end up paying more or less than that.  A fee of less than 3% seems unlikely, as does a fee of greater than 9%.

Civic Hospital Site

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government and the Ottawa Hospital announce a new site on the Central Experimental Farm for the Civic Campus?
Yes: 40%
(A specific site must be chosen, and the announcement must have the agreement of both parties.)

The Ottawa Hospital is currently considering 4 sites for a new Civic Campus, 3 of which are on the Central Experimental Farm (see article here).  I'm not sure what the expected timeline is to be, but it seems likely that a site on the Farm will eventually be chosen.  However, it may not happen in the next year.

Rural Stormwater Fee Ottawa

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa introduce a separate fee for stormwater services in areas without sewer or water services?
Yes: 55%
(A general increase in property taxes to pay for stormwater services would not count for the purpose of this question.  A "Yes" answer only requires a decision by the city to introduce a fee, not the actual introduction of a fee)

There has been some controversy over a City of Ottawa proposal to introduce a fee for stormwater services in rural areas (see article here).  The city is currently considering options, and will report back in June at the earliest.  My sense is that some sort of new fee will likely be introduced, but it may not be a separate stormwater services fee.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 15%

The Sandy Hill Community Health Centre is seeking federal approval for a supervised injection site (see article here).  With the appropriate approval, the Centre hopes to open the site by "spring 2017".  The mayor and police chief are opposed, but some councillors and the medical officer of health support it.  I think the lack of approval from municipal authorities will be sufficient to stop this proposal, or at least delay it beyond the end date of this question.

Ottawa Taxi Reform

Before the end of June 2016, will Ottawa City Council approve the proposed reforms to taxi regulations?
Yes: 80%

On Friday, the City of Ottawa community and protective services committee approved a number of regulations to reform the taxi industry (see article here).  The issue goes before the full City Council on Wednesday.  Ottawa mayor Jim Watson is supportive of the changes, as is committee chair Diane Deans.  However, a number of councillors appear to be opposed.  My sense is that the reforms will be approved, although it is possible that the opposition will be significant enough to block the reforms (or delay approval beyond the end of June).

Photo Radar Ottawa

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa ask the government of Ontario for permission to use photo radar?
Yes: 30%

The City of Ottawa is currently considering asking the province for permission to use photo radar (see article here).  The main proponent seems to be councillor Riley Brockington; mayor Jim Watson seems to be opposed.  At this point, I don't think that the city will ultimately end up asking for photo radar, at least this year, but it is possible that they will if there is enough community pressure.

Eli El-Chantiry Resignation

Before the end of 2016, will Eli El-Chantiry permanently leave the office of Ottawa Police Services Board Chair?
Yes: 15%

The head of the police union has asked the chair of the police services board, Eli El-Chantiry, to resign (see article here).  El-Chantiry has said he does not plan to resign.  There doesn't seem to be much of a reason for him to do so, so I am giving a low estimate.

Lebreton Flats Redevelopment

Which Lebreton Flats Redevelopment Proposal will the NCC pick?
The Rendez Vous LeBreton Proposal: 50%
The DCDLS Proposal: 20%
Neither: 30%
(If the NCC makes no decision by the end of 2016, that counts as Neither.  If the NCC picks a single proposal, but later backs out, that will count for that proposal)

Two Lebreton Flats redevelopment proposals have been submitted, both of which apparently include an NHL arena (see article here).  My impression is that the Rendez Vous LeBreton Proposal, which has the explicit cooperation of the Senators, is more likely to succeed than the competing proposal.  Given the limited number of proposals, it also seems quite possible that neither proposal will be accepted.

Rockcliffe Redevelopment

Before the end of 2016, will construction begin on new residences on the former Rockcliffe airbase?
Yes: 65%
(Other construction, such as construction of infrastructure, does not count for this question.  Mixed use buildings count, as long as they contain residences)

The community development plan for the former Rockcliffe airbase was recently approved by the City of Ottawa planning committee (see article here).  According to the current plan, parcels should begin to be sold to developers in March of next year, with the first residents moving in in 2017.  On that timetable, construction should start sometime next year.  However, there is the potential for delay, so I am going with a somewhat moderate estimate.

Stittsville High School

Q188: Before the end of 2016, will the construction of a new public English high school in or near Stittsville be officially announced?
Yes: 25%
(A somewhat tentative or conditional announcement is acceptable.)

Stittsville, a western Ottawa suburb, currently has no public high school.  There has been lobbying by parents there to build one (see article here).  The public board had a new high school for Stittsville on its list of priorities since 2006.

This sort of thing often happens very slowly.  Given that, I think there will probably be no announcement in the next year and a half.  In the longer term, Stittsville probably will get a new high school, as it seems to be rather under-served.

Ottawa Central Library

Q175: Before the end of 2016, will Ottawa City Council approve the construction of a new central library?
Yes: 35%
(Not all details of the new library need to be worked out.)

The City of Ottawa is currently considering whether to build a new central library or refurbish the existing one (see story here).  According to the current timeline, the city could "approve the results of a request for proposal toward the end of 2016".  I think that approval for a new library may take more time than that; the idea of a new library has been around for a long time, and plans for a new one still seem to be in the early stages.

Hydro Ottawa Expansion

Q168: When will Hydro Ottawa officially announce that it is taking over the accounts of the remaining Hydro One customers in the City of Ottawa?
Before the end of 2015: 40%
In 2016: 20%
Not before the end of 2016: 40%
(Most, but not necessarily all, of the 45,000 Hydro One customers in the City of Ottawa must join Hydro Ottawa for this question to trigger)

Negotiations are currently taking place regarding the remaining customers of Hydro One (the provincial electricity distributor) who live in the City of Ottawa (see articles here and here).  The city would like those customers to join Hydro Ottawa, while Hydro One wants a substantial payment for transferring the customers.  These customers pay substantially more than similar Hydro Ottawa customers; they are relatively low-cost Hydro One customers, but would be relatively high-cost Hydro Ottawa customers.  Ottawa mayor Jim Watson has expressed optimism about the negotiations.  The partial Hydro One sale in the fall seems to be a soft deadline for the negotiations.

The most likely outcome is probably an agreement before the end of 2015.  The encouraging statements by the mayor, and the pressure created by the impending Hydro One sale, make this more likely.  If no agreement is reached by the end of 2015, there will probably be no agreement in 2016 at all, because of the partial Hydro One sale.

Ottawa Ranked Ballots

Q160: Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa decide to use ranked ballots in future municipal elections?
Yes: 10%
(A vote by city council counts as a decision, even if it is later reversed.  The partial use of ranked ballots counts)

The Ontario government is currently preparing legislation that would allow cities to use ranked ballots for municipal elections (see articles here and here).  Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson does not seem to be too enthusiastic at the prospect.  Given Watson's lack of enthusiasm, and the relatively short time period of this question, I am going with a low estimate.