Ontario Budget Deficit 2017

What will be the Ontario government budget balance for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, according to the 2017-2018 budget as originally tabled?
A surplus of more than $5 billion: 10%
A surplus of less than $5 billion: 40%
A deficit of less than $5 billion: 25%
A deficit of more than $5 billion: 25%

The Ontario government is projecting a modest surplus for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, after a projected deficit of $4.3 billion in 2016-2017 (see articles here and here).  The projection seems reasonable, according to Ontario's Financial Accountability Officer.  This year, the government's projected deficit for 2016-2017 decreased from the 2015 budget to the 2016 budget.

I think the most likely outcome is a small surplus.  However, unexpected events could lead to a relatively large deficit, or at least a small deficit.  A large surplus seems unlikely.