NHL Expansion

Before the end of 2016, will one or both of Quebec City and Las Vegas be granted NHL franchises?
Both: 55%
Las Vegas only: 25%
Quebec City only: 10%
Neither: 10%
(Both an expansion franchise and a relocated franchise count)

Since my last post, Quebec City and Las Vegas have both advanced to "Phase III" of the NHL's expansion process (see article here).  Las Vegas seems to be very likely to get a team, while there seems to be more uncertainty over whether Quebec City will get a team.  The fact that Quebec City and Las Vegas have both advanced so far in the process is a good sign for both bids.  I am substantially increasing my odds for both, relative to my previous posts.

Las Vegas NHL

Q184: Before the end of 2016, will the NHL officially announce that it is granting a franchise to Las Vegas?
Yes: 60%
(Both an expansion franchise and a relocated franchise count)

Along with Quebec City (see my previous post, which I may update), there has some speculation that the NHL may grant a franchise to Las Vegas (see article here).  Since my last post, the NHL has announced that it is entertaining the idea of expansion franchises, which makes a Vegas team in the near future more likely.  The Arizona Coyote franchise might also relocate to Vegas, although the NHL has denied this (see story here).  Las Vegas is building a new arena, and seems to have had some success in soliciting fan interest.  According to a recent National Post article, there is a 98% chance of Vegas getting an expansion team.

I think that a Las Vegas team is very possible, but far from a sure thing.  Southern US teams have not done so well financially in recent years.  The NHL may not want a team in Vegas because of the gambling connection.  The NHL may choose not to expand at all, for financial or other reasons.

Senators Lebreton Flats

Q11: Will the Ottawa Senators arena proposal win the NCC Lebreton Flats Design Competition?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Definition note: The answer will be yes if the Senators' proposal is selected as the "recommended proposal" by the NCC board.  It does not need to get cabinet approval)

The Ottawa Senators have announced that they are submitting a proposal for a new arena on NCC land in Lebreton Flats.  They will have to compete with other proposals for the land, not all of which are clear at this point.  A decision is expected by late 2015 or early 2016.

Although the Senators' proposal has gotten a lot of attention, it does not seem to have a great deal of political support.  Jim Watson sounds somewhat ambivalent about it.  It does not seem like the sort of proposal that the NCC would support; it might be seen as not having enough public benefit.  However, it might still win if the competing proposals are sufficiently weak,