Guatemalan Election

Q145: Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Manuel Baldizón: 45%
Alejandro Sinibaldi: 25%
Sandra Torres: 15%
Someone Else: 15%

The next Guatemalan Presidential election is scheduled for September 6th, with a possible second round on October 20th if no one gets more than 50% of the vote (see reference here).  The incumbent, Otto Pérez Molina, of the PP party, is ineligible to run due to term limits.  Manuel Baldizón, of the LIDER party, seems to be the frontrunner.  His main competitor appears to be Alejandro Sinibaldi of the PP party, while Sandra Torres of the UNE party seems to be a third viable candidate.  Polls from last year, of uncertain reliability, suggest that Baldizón has 44% support, Sinibaldi 33%, and Torres 16% (see Spanish site here).

Baldizón certainly seems most likely to win, followed by Sinibaldi and then Torres.  It is also possible that none of the three candidates may win.  This could happen some fourth party wins the election, or one of the three major parties nominates an unexpected candidate and then wins,   I don't have a lot of confidence in forecasts about a place like Guatemala, since I am not very familiar with it.