Election-Related Post-Mortem: Quebec and Rural Ridings

• The Liberals won in Hull—Aylmer (see also Hull-Alymer v2).  I initially gave them 13% odds, which I later increased to 45%
• The Liberals won in Gatineau (see also Gatineau v2).  I initially gave them 2% odds (I actually thought they were less likely to win then the BQ), which I later increased to 15%
• The Liberals won in Pontiac (see also Pontiac v2).  I initially gave them 12% odds, which I later increased to 65%.
• The Liberals won in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell (see also Glengarry—Prescott—Russell v2).  My odds went from 35% to 70%.
• The Conservatives won in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry.  I gave them 90% odds.
• The Conservatives won in Leeds—Grenville.  I gave them 90% odds there as well.
• The Conservatives won in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston.  I gave them 92% odds.
• The Conservatives won in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke.  I gave them 94% odds.
• The NDP won in Outremont.  I gave them a 65% chance of winning there.

The biggest miss was definitely in Gatineau.  The NDP won in 2011 in Gatineau with almost 62% of the vote, and they had a very strong candidate in Françoise Boivin.  The size of the vote swing there was much larger than I expected, and rather surprising.