Election Related Post-Mortem: Campaign

• There were five Federal Election TV Debates.  I said there was a 60% chance of at least this number of debates, which might have been slightly overconfident given how much uncertainty seemed to be associated with the process.
• Neither Stephen Harper nor Rob Nicholson announced that they would retire before the federal election (see my posts Stephen Harper Retirement and Rob Nicholson Retirement).  I said Harper had a 35% chance of such an announcement, which was definitely too high in the absence of suggestive evidence.  I gave Nicholson a 15% of retiring, which was more reasonable.
• Negotiations have concluded on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (also see my Canada-specific predictions Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada and Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada v2).  I originally said a deal had a 15% chance of being reached between September and December, and a 35% chance of being reached in 2015.  I also said a deal involving Canada had a 20% chance of being reached in 2015, which I later increased to 45%.  I may have been a bit too pessimistic about the likelihood of a deal being reached, especially one involving Canada.
• Mulcair did not renounce his French citizenship (see my post Mulcair French Citizenship).  I gave him a 10% chance of doing so.