Outremont

Which party will win in the riding of Outremont?
NDP: 65%
Liberal: 35%

Outremont is a central Montreal riding that is the current home riding of NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.  In the last election, the NDP won 56% of the vote, while the Liberals got 24%, and the other parties were well back.  However, based on the recent collapse in NDP support in Quebec, www.threehundredeight.com currently gives the NDP only a 56% chance of winning in Outremont.  I think that this estimate might be a bit low; now that Outremont is in jeopardy, the NDP will likely make more of an effort than they would have otherwise to get out the vote there.  The Liberal candidate, Rachel Bendayan, does not seem to be a "star candidate", although she is not as much of a lightweight as might be expected (see story here).