Federal Election Result v2

Q93: What will be the result of the 2015 Federal Election?
Conservative Majority: 15%
Conservative Minority: 40%
Liberal Minority: 30%
Liberal Majority: 10%
NDP Minority/Majority: 5%
(This question is just a second version of question 3)

Since my initial federal election prediction. the Conservatives have gained in the polls slightly, so a new projection might be appropriate.  According to the current threehundredeight.com projection, the Conservatives and Liberals will both get about 32% of the vote, while the NDP are at 22%.  However, the Conservatives are projected to get more seats.

Given the above, I am increasing my odds for a Conservative minority and majority, and decreasing my odds for a Liberal minority and majority.  I now think that the most likely outcome is a Conservative minority, although a Liberal minority is also quite possible.