To which party will the next Spanish Prime Minister belong?
People's Party (PP): 40%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 59%
Some Other Party: 1%
The Spanish election has resulted in a plurality, but not a majority, for the conservative People's Party (see article here, and my earlier prediction here). A conservative coalition does not seem possible, but a left-wing coalition also seems to be difficult to organize. I think that a left-wing coalition of some type will eventually be cobbled together.
Showing posts with label Southern Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Southern Europe. Show all posts
Tuesday, 22 December 2015
Friday, 6 November 2015
Portuguese Confidence Vote
Before the end of 2015, will the government of Portugal lose a confidence vote?
Yes: 80%
The new right-wing government of Portugal is widely expected to lose a confidence vote on November 10th, due to the opposition of a number of left-wing parties (see article here). In the last election, the government won a plurality of seats, but lost its parliamentary majority.
Yes: 80%
The new right-wing government of Portugal is widely expected to lose a confidence vote on November 10th, due to the opposition of a number of left-wing parties (see article here). In the last election, the government won a plurality of seats, but lost its parliamentary majority.
Wednesday, 14 October 2015
Catalan Independence Negotiations
By the end of 2016, will negotiations begin between Catalonia and Spain regarding Catalan independence?
Yes: 20%
(If Catalonia unilaterally secedes or declares independence, this question will close for yes. Negotiations between Catalonia and Spain not regarding independence will not be sufficient to close this question)
Catalan separatists recently won regional elections that were widely viewed as a referendum on Catalan separatism (see story here). The main separatist party, Together for Yes, had vowed before the election to immediately begin negotiations with the central Spanish government over independence. In any case, they plan to unilaterally declare independence within 18 months. The current Spanish government seems to be resolutely opposed to Catalan independence, and unwilling to enter into any negotiations. The government's view might change after the national elections in December, although all of the major parties seem to be opposed to Catalan independence.
Given the opposition of the central government, it seems unlikely that any Catalan independence negotiations will actually take place. The most likely outcome is that the Catalan government will back down in its demands, in exchange for some form of regional autonomy.
Yes: 20%
(If Catalonia unilaterally secedes or declares independence, this question will close for yes. Negotiations between Catalonia and Spain not regarding independence will not be sufficient to close this question)
Catalan separatists recently won regional elections that were widely viewed as a referendum on Catalan separatism (see story here). The main separatist party, Together for Yes, had vowed before the election to immediately begin negotiations with the central Spanish government over independence. In any case, they plan to unilaterally declare independence within 18 months. The current Spanish government seems to be resolutely opposed to Catalan independence, and unwilling to enter into any negotiations. The government's view might change after the national elections in December, although all of the major parties seem to be opposed to Catalan independence.
Given the opposition of the central government, it seems unlikely that any Catalan independence negotiations will actually take place. The most likely outcome is that the Catalan government will back down in its demands, in exchange for some form of regional autonomy.
Tuesday, 7 July 2015
Spanish PM
Q174: To which party will the next Spanish Prime Minister belong?
People's Party (PP): 30%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 50%
Podemos: 15%
Some Other Party: 5%
("Next Prime Minister" means "Prime Minister after the next election")
Because of the potential for coalition governments in Spain, the party with the most seats (which I have predicted here) might not be the party that forms the government. In particular, the current polls seem to suggest that the next government might be a PSOE-Podemos coalition, as happened in many Spanish municipalities after the last municipal elections (see article here). Spain does not seem have a tradition of coalition governments like many other European countries. According to iPredict, there is only a 20% chance of a People's Party government, while there is a 73% chance of a PSOE government.
I think that a Podemos-government is a real possibility, and is very likely if they win the most seats. A People's Party government is also quite possible (more than 20%). Still, the most likely outcome seems to be PSOE-led government.
People's Party (PP): 30%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 50%
Podemos: 15%
Some Other Party: 5%
("Next Prime Minister" means "Prime Minister after the next election")
Because of the potential for coalition governments in Spain, the party with the most seats (which I have predicted here) might not be the party that forms the government. In particular, the current polls seem to suggest that the next government might be a PSOE-Podemos coalition, as happened in many Spanish municipalities after the last municipal elections (see article here). Spain does not seem have a tradition of coalition governments like many other European countries. According to iPredict, there is only a 20% chance of a People's Party government, while there is a 73% chance of a PSOE government.
I think that a Podemos-government is a real possibility, and is very likely if they win the most seats. A People's Party government is also quite possible (more than 20%). Still, the most likely outcome seems to be PSOE-led government.
Thursday, 2 July 2015
Portuguese Election v2
Q170: What party will win the most seats in the next Portuguese election?
Portugal Ahead: 40%
Socialist Party: 55%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the Portugal Ahead alliance fragments, then the question will resolve for them if either of the fragments wins the most seats. Similarly, a win for Portugal Ahead would count for a win for the Social Democrats for the purposes of my last post)
Since my last post about the Portuguese election, there have been some further developments. The two main right-wing parties, the Social Democratic Party and the People's Party, have formed an alliance known as Portugal Ahead. The Socialists now have about 37% of the vote, while Portugal Ahead has about 35% of the vote. I am decreasing my odds for the Socialists, and increasing them for everyone else.
Portugal Ahead: 40%
Socialist Party: 55%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the Portugal Ahead alliance fragments, then the question will resolve for them if either of the fragments wins the most seats. Similarly, a win for Portugal Ahead would count for a win for the Social Democrats for the purposes of my last post)
Since my last post about the Portuguese election, there have been some further developments. The two main right-wing parties, the Social Democratic Party and the People's Party, have formed an alliance known as Portugal Ahead. The Socialists now have about 37% of the vote, while Portugal Ahead has about 35% of the vote. I am decreasing my odds for the Socialists, and increasing them for everyone else.
Thursday, 26 March 2015
Andreas Lubitz's motive
Q82: When will an official announcement be made regarding Andreas Lubitz's motive in crashing Germanwings Flight 4U9525?
Before the end of March: 30%
Between April 1, 2015 and the end of 2015: 25%
Not before the end of 2015: 45%
(An announcement that "no motive can be found" does not count. An announcement that Lubitz was not responsible for crashing the plane, or did not intentionally crash the plane would count. The official announcement must be based at least in part on significant evidence that is currently not public. The evidence does not need to be conclusive, and the conclusion regarding the motive does not need to be universally accepted)
Andres Lubitz was the co-pilot of the recently crashed Germanwings Flight 4U9525. Authorities say that he deliberately crashed the plane. There does not seem to be any clear evidence of motive at this point. I think that the motive may be revealed shortly, perhaps by personal effects left by Lubitz, or by interviews with family or friends.
If the motive is not revealed shortly, it is quite possible that no significant new evidence will come to light, at least before the end of 2015. Based on previous examples of this type (see a list here), the motive is often very unclear.
Before the end of March: 30%
Between April 1, 2015 and the end of 2015: 25%
Not before the end of 2015: 45%
(An announcement that "no motive can be found" does not count. An announcement that Lubitz was not responsible for crashing the plane, or did not intentionally crash the plane would count. The official announcement must be based at least in part on significant evidence that is currently not public. The evidence does not need to be conclusive, and the conclusion regarding the motive does not need to be universally accepted)
Andres Lubitz was the co-pilot of the recently crashed Germanwings Flight 4U9525. Authorities say that he deliberately crashed the plane. There does not seem to be any clear evidence of motive at this point. I think that the motive may be revealed shortly, perhaps by personal effects left by Lubitz, or by interviews with family or friends.
If the motive is not revealed shortly, it is quite possible that no significant new evidence will come to light, at least before the end of 2015. Based on previous examples of this type (see a list here), the motive is often very unclear.
Thursday, 5 March 2015
Portugese Election
Q64: What party will win the most seats in the next Portuguese election?
Social Democratic Party: 29%
Socialist Party: 70%
Someone Else: 1%
The next Portuguese election is scheduled for late September or early October of this year (see the Wikipedia article here). The Socialist Party currently has about an 8% lead in the polls over the center-right Social Democratic Party (about 37% to 29%). The other parties are well back (the highest has a 10% vote total). Portugal has a mixed proportional representation system, so the party leading in the vote total is very likely to win the most seats.
Based on the same methodology as the Greek election, I estimate the Socialist party has about a 70% chance of winning. If they don't win, the Social Democratic Party is almost certain to win.
Social Democratic Party: 29%
Socialist Party: 70%
Someone Else: 1%
The next Portuguese election is scheduled for late September or early October of this year (see the Wikipedia article here). The Socialist Party currently has about an 8% lead in the polls over the center-right Social Democratic Party (about 37% to 29%). The other parties are well back (the highest has a 10% vote total). Portugal has a mixed proportional representation system, so the party leading in the vote total is very likely to win the most seats.
Based on the same methodology as the Greek election, I estimate the Socialist party has about a 70% chance of winning. If they don't win, the Social Democratic Party is almost certain to win.
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