Spanish PM

Q174: To which party will the next Spanish Prime Minister belong?
People's Party (PP): 30%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 50%
Podemos: 15%
Some Other Party: 5%
("Next Prime Minister" means "Prime Minister after the next election")

Because of the potential for coalition governments in Spain, the party with the most seats (which I have predicted here) might not be the party that forms the government.  In particular, the current polls seem to suggest that the next government might be a PSOE-Podemos coalition, as happened in many Spanish municipalities after the last municipal elections (see article here).  Spain does not seem have a tradition of coalition governments like many other European countries.  According to iPredict, there is only a 20% chance of a People's Party government, while there is a 73% chance of a PSOE government.

I think that a Podemos-government is a real possibility, and is very likely if they win the most seats.  A People's Party government is also quite possible (more than 20%).  Still, the most likely outcome seems to be PSOE-led government.