Ontario Teachers' Negotiations

Q195: When will a new contract be reached between the Ontario government and the Elementary Teachers Federation?
Before September 8th: 15%
Between September 8th and October 31st: 50%
Between November 1st and December 31st: 15%
Not before the December 31st: 20%
(The contract needs to be accepted by union members to count for the purposes of this question, although the date that counts is the date the contract is reached, not the date it is voted upon)

The Elementary Teachers Federation, which represents public elementary teachers, has not yet reached an agreement with the province after their old one expired (see my previous post here, and more recent story here).  Teachers at some boards have been launching work-to-rule campaigns, and a strike is also possible.  The province and the union do not have any negotiations scheduled.

My sense is that nothing substantive will happen before classes start in the fall (on September 8th).  The union will likely call a strike deadline around that time, and negotiations will begin in earnest.  A new contract will probably be reached not long afterwards (possibly averting a strike).  However, it is possible that negotiations will drag on through the fall, and that a contract will not be reached until November or December (or possibly even later).  It is also possible that a contract will be reached in the summer, although there doesn't seem to be any pressure to reach a contract at this point.