- Q35 (Income-Splitting) has resolved for yes, as the budget received royal assent this month. I said this had a 95% chance of happening. This was a silly question, because there wasn't enough uncertainty; income-splitting had already been approved by the time I created the question.
- Q53 (OPP October 22 Report Release) has resolved for yes, as the OPP report on the October 22nd shooting was released this month. I said that this had a 27% chance of happening, and seemed to think it would happen after the election. The government had previously indicated that this report would not be released, and I probably took that promise too seriously.
- Q61 (Turkish Election) has resolved for "Less than 276", as the AKP failed to get a parliamentary majority of 276 seats in the election. I said this had a 15% chance of happening. That estimate may have been a bit low, although the poor result for the AKP seems to have been genuinely surprising.
- Q73 (Danish Election) has resolved for the Social Democrats. I said this had a 35% chance of happening, which seems about right.
- Q74 (Victims of Communism Memorial) has resolved for no. The NCC has decided to make substantial changes in the design of the memorial, so it won't be constructed according to the original design by the end of 2015. I said this had a 40% chance of happening, which might have been too low. This question would have been better if there had been a third option like "Construction according to a different plan" (which is what will probably happen).
- Q90 (SC Medical Marijuana) has resolved for yes, as the Supreme Court has overturned the federal ban on medical marijuana in non-dried form. I said this had a 60% chance of happening. This might have been a bit too low; the Supreme Court has overturned federal laws in all 3 of the decisions that have resolved so far on this blog.
- Q102 (Israel Coalition Partner) has resolved for no, as the latest Israeli government does not include the Zionist Union Party. This actually happened in May, but I missed it then. I said this had a 85% chance of happening, which seems about right.
- Q143 (Molycorp Bankruptcy Protection) has resolved for yes, as Molycorp has indeed declared bankruptcy. I said this had a 70% chance of happening.
- Q147 (New York Escapee Apprehension) has resolved for "Between June 13th and June 30th", as both escapees have been apprehended. I said this had a 20% chance of happening (there were 3 bins, and this was the middle bin). I am somewhat surprised that it took so long for the prisoners to be apprehended, and will adjust my odds in the future accordingly.
- Q152 (Tal Abyad Capture) has resolved for "Before June 20th", as the IS lost control of Tal Abyad shortly after this question was written. I said this had a 35% chance of happening (with 3 bins), which seems roughly accurate.
Wednesday, 1 July 2015
Questions Resolved in June
A fair amount happened in June:
Labels:
Post-Mortem
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