Next PM

Q179: To which party will the Prime Minister belong to after the next federal election?
Conservative: 40%
NDP: 40%
Liberal: 20%
(The first Prime Minister who forms a government will count for the purposes of this question, even if that Prime Minister quickly loses the confidence of the House and is replaced by a longer-serving Prime Minister)

Since my last federal election projection, the NDP have continued to do well, and are now leading in the polls with around 32% of the vote.  The Conservatives have around 30%, while the Liberals are at about 27%.  www.threehundredeight.com now projects the NDP to win the most seats.

I would estimate that the NDP have about a 40% chance of winning the most seats, the Conservatives a 35% chance, and the Liberals a 25% chance.  However, the Conservatives might have a slightly better chance than that of forming the next government, because the Governor General might ask them to form the government in the case of a weak NDP (or Liberal) plurality (there is a bit of a bias towards the status quo in these sorts of cases).  On the other hand, the NDP and Liberals may form a governing coalition in the event of a weak Conservative plurality, but this would probably not be the first government formed.  Given these possibilities, I am increasing my odds for the Conservatives slightly.