Sunday, 1 February 2015

US Economic Growth

Q32: What will US real GDP growth be in 2015?
Below 2%: 33%
Between 2% and 3%: 22%
Between 3% and 4%: 20%
Above 4%: 25%
(Definition Note: The source for this question will be the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  I will use the revised numbers, not the "third" estimates)

According to projections of several forecasters, US real GDP growth is expected to be 2.8% (on average) from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015.  The historical root mean squared error (RMSE) of these forecasts is around 1.8%.  These numbers were used to derive the estimate above for annual GDP growth (which should be closely related).

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