Year-End Post-Mortem: Crime

• There were fewer Ottawa Shooting Incidents in 2015 then 2014 (also see my post Ottawa Shootings v2).  In January, I said there was a 75% chance of this, which I decreased to 60% in November.  I think my initial estimate was reasonable, but I may have over-reacted in November.
• There has been no announcement regarding the closure of the main Nunuvut Jail.  I said there was a 25% chance of such an announcement, which was almost certainly too high; closing the jail would have been an extreme step to take.
• As far as I can tell, there has been no permanent ban on Toronto Police Carding.  I said there was a 70% chance of such a ban.  This was definitely an overestimate; the status quo (of an extended temporary ban, in this case) is almost always the most likely outcome for this sort of question.
• There was no lethal terrorist attacks in Canada in 2015 (see my post Terrorism in Canada).  In January, I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably about right.
• There was no lethal Islamist Terrorism in the EU in 2015 after November 23rd.  I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably too high.
• Salah Abdeslam, one of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks, has not been apprehended (see my post Salah Abdeslam Apprehension).  On November 27th, I said there was a 70% chance he would be apprehended by the end of the year, which was probably too high.