Before the end of 2016, will Apple help the FBI to open the iPhone owned by one of the San Bernardino shooters?
Yes: 20%
(If there is no media reporting, a "No" answer will be assumed. If the US government opens the phone without the help of Apple, that counts as a "No" as well)
A US judge has ordered Apple to open an iPhone owned by one of the San Bernardino shooters (see article here). Apple has vowed to fight the court order. This question could trigger if Apple fails in subsequent appeals, or changes its mind and decides to comply with the order. I think that subsequent appeals will probably go beyond 2016, and Apple is rather unlikely to change its mind. As well, it is possible that the US government will just open the iPhone on their own if the appeals drag on too long.
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