Canada Post Strike

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 40%
(If a new contract is ratified, this question will immediately close on No)

Contract negotiations are currently going on between Canada Post and its union, CUPW (see article here).  Canada Post has warned some customers of a "potential work stoppage" in early July, and some union officials have also indicated that a strike or lockout is imminent.  The last contract negotiations (in 2011) resulted in a 3-week strike.

The base rate of strikes is rather low, but the history in this case suggests a strike is more likely.  As well, both parties seem to be signalling that a strike is likely, although this is partly for show.  I am going with a fairly neutral forecast.