Q5: Which party will win the most seats in the Greek Legislative Election on January 25, 2015?
New Democracy (ND): 20%
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA): 80%
SYRIZA, an anti-austerity party, is currently leading in the polls by about 5% to ND, the incumbent party. Greece has a proportional representation system, so the party with the most votes will have the most seats (although there are also bonus seats for the party with the most votes).
Based on data in Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (pg. 63), a senate candidate with a 5% lead in the polls with a month to the election has a 81% chance of winning. This would suggest that SYRIZA has a 80% or so chance of winning, which I think is reasonable.
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