Alberta Election v2

Q112: What will be the result of the upcoming Alberta provincial election?
PC Minority/Majority: 15%
Wildrose Minority: 10%
Wildrose Majority: 5%
NDP Minority: 35%
NDP Majority: 35%

Since my last prediction, the situation in Alberta has changed substantially.  The NDP have gained substantially in the polls, at the expense of the three other major parties.  Polling now suggests that the NDP have about 40% of the vote, the Wildrose 25% and the PCs 20%.  Those numbers would suggest a NDP majority, although a NDP minority is also possible.  There seems to be some scepticism about the latest polls, which also seem to indicate that most Albertans expect the PCs to win.  NDP support seems to be somewhat concentrated in Edmonton.  Previous elections in 2012 and 1989 also had polls suggesting lacklustre PC support, but the PCs won handily in both elections.

I still think that a NDP minority or majority is the most likely outcome; their lead in the polls is considerable.  However, given the tenuousness and concentration of their support, I think it is quite likely that they will only get a minority.  If the NDP don't win, the PCs and Wildrose are about equally likely to win.  The PCs have a stronger organization, while the Wildrose are leading slightly in the polls over the PCs.