Budget Post-Mortem

• The budget was released on March 22 (see my post Federal Budget Timing).  I said there was a 35% chance that it would be released in the week of March 21st, and that week was the one I thought the budget would most likely be released in.
• The federal budget deficit for 2016 is $29.4 billion (see my posts Balanced Budget 2016, Balanced Budget 2016 v2, Federal Budget Deficit, Federal Budget Deficit v2, and Federal Budget Deficit v3).  In my initial prediction last April, I said there was a 35% chance of an unbalanced budget.  During the election campaign, I decreased that to 25%, because of the NDP pledge to run balanced budgets.  After the election, I said there was a 70% chance of a budget deficit larger than $10 billion.  In February, after the fiscal update, I projected a 30% chance of a deficit larger than $25 billion, and a 90% chance of a deficit smaller than $30 billion.  Just before the budget was released, I said there was a 85% chance of a deficit larger than $20 billion, and a 50% chance of a deficit smaller than $30 billion. Overall, I generally underestimated the size of the budget deficit, and I may have under-reacted to news suggesting that the budget deficit would be smaller than expected.
• The Liberals are repealing income-splitting for parents (see my post Income-Splitting Repeal)..  Last April, I said there was a 35% chance that this would happen.
• The budget announced a 1.61% 2017 EI premium rate (see my post EI Premium Rate 2017).  In December, I said there was a 35% chance of a 2017 EI premium rate between 1.6% and 1.7%, and I thought this was the most likely range,