Post-Mortem: Ottawa Questions

• The Ottawa Jail Strike was averted.  In mid-December, I said there was a 60% chance of an agreement by the end of April, and a 75% chance of no strike by then.  I may have been a bit pessimistic about how long it would take to reach an agreement.
• The Rideau Canal Opening was in January.  In late December, I said there was a 75% chance of the canal opening in January, as it almost always does.  Perhaps I should have paid more attention here to the base rate; the canal has only opened later than January once in its history.
• The Ottawa OMB Appeal was not successful.  I said there was a 70% chance of non-success.  This might be one of the cases where I was under-confident.
• The OLG Lockout continued beyond the end of February.  In December, I said there was only a 15% chance of the lockout lasting that long.