Year-End Post Mortem: Canadian Politics

• The Liberals won the NL Election in December.  In March, I said they had a 90% chance of winning.
• The new House Speaker is Geoff Regan.  I gave him a 20% chance of winning, as I gave two other similar candidates, so this is not a great surprise.
• The government has announced a TFSA Limit Contraction.  In April, I said there was a 20% chance of this happening.  I gave a low estimate at that time because I thought the Conservatives might stay in power, and that whoever replaced them might move slowly or not at all in decreasing the TFSA contribution limit.
• The federal government has agreed to resettle more than 30,000 Syrian refugees (see my post Syrian Refugee Resettlement).  I said there was a 40% chance of this large a number in September, which seems reasonable if a bit low.
• The federal government did not succeed in bringing in 25,000 (or 20,000) Syrian refugees by the end of the year (see my post Syrian Refugee Timing).  In November, I said there was a 65% chance of success.