Conservative Leadership Post-Mortem

• The new Conservative Interim Leader is Rona Ambrose (also see my post Conservative Interim Leader v2).  In my first post, I gave Ambrose a 13% chance of winning the leadership, and she was one of my top four candidates.  In my second post, after a number of other candidates had stepped forward, I did not include her on my list, and gave "Someone Else" only a 10% chance of winning.  I clearly didn't take adequate account of the potential for candidates to enter the race late.  This is one of those somewhat unusual cases where I overreacted to news after my initial prediction.
• The Conservatives decided to allow Senators to vote for party leader (see my post Conservative Senators Voting).  I said there was a 70% chance that this would happen.
• The Conservatives did not give themselves the power to remove the party leader (see my post Conservative Leader Removal).  I said there was a 65% chance that the vote would go this way.  As with the last question, I might have been a bit under-confident.