- Mauricio Macri won the Argentinian Election (see my second post Argentine Election v2). I gave him a 15% chance of winning initially in March, which I increased to 35% in June. I think I may have under-reacted slightly to Macri's significant rise in the polls between those two dates.
- The NLD won the Burmese Election (see my second post Burmese Election v2). In June, I gave them a 55% chance of winning, which I increased to 73% just before the election. These estimates may have been overly conservative, given the immense popularity the NLD seemed to enjoy.
- Turkey held another parliamentary election in 2015, which I gave 85% odds to in my post Next Turkish Election Date
- The Portuguese government has lost a confidence vote (see my post Portuguese Confidence Vote). I said this had a 80% chance of happening.
- The French State of Emergency was extended beyond the end of 2015. I gave it a 90% chance of happening.
The last three questions were somewhat soft; although the events were unusual in historical context, they were completely expected by the time I made my prediction.
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