Cabinet Selection Post-Mortem: Results

• The new Finance Minister is Bill Morneau (see also Finance Minister v2).  In my prediction before the election, I didn't include him in my list of names, but I did give "Someone Else" a 55% chance of being Finance Minister.  In my second prediction, I gave Morneau a 20% chance of being finance minister (he was second on my list)
• The Foreign Affairs Minister is Stéphane Dion.  Before the election, I did not include him in my list of names, but gave "Someone Else" a 60% chance.  Dion was a bit of a surprise pick.
• The Defence Minister is Harjit Sajjan, whom I gave a 10% chance of becoming minister (he was 3rd on my list).
• The Justice Minister is Jody Wilson-Raybould.  I did not include her in my list of names, but gave "someone else" a 45% chance.
• The Industry Minister is Navdeep Bains (although the title has been renamed to Minister of Innovation, Science, and Economic Development).  I did not include him in my list of names, but gave "someone else" a 45% chance
• The Environment Minister is Catherine McKenna.  I did not list her as one of my four candidates, but "Someone Else" did get a 45% chance.  McKenna was a somewhat surprising pick for Environment Minister.
• The Agriculture Minister is Lawrence MacAulay.  I did not list him in my list of top three names, but "someone else" was given a 65% chance of becoming Agriculture Minister.  MacAulay is a somewhat surprising pick, given his rather low profile.
• The Aboriginal Affairs Minister is Carolyn Bennett (although the post has been restyled as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Affairs).  I gave her a 10% chance of becoming minister (she was the last person on my list).