Wednesday, 2 December 2015

Questions Resolved in November: Other


  • The Supreme Court overturned Canada's human smuggling law (see my post Supreme Court Human Smuggling).  I said that the Court had a 65% of overturning the law.
  • The Supreme Court did not give the Yukon French school board the power to control its own enrolment policy (see my post Yukon French School SC).  I said there was a 40% chance that the Court would make this decision.
  • There was no Ottawa Teachers' Strike (also see my post Ottawa Teachers' Strike v2).  In my first post (in May) I said there was a 50% chance of no strike this year.  In my post in July, I lowered that to 40%.  This is one of those relatively rare cases where I moved my odds in the wrong direction as time went on.  Not many of my strike questions have triggered, so I may have overestimated the odds of a strike in this case.
  • The Ontario Teachers' Negotiations have successfully concluded.  In July, I said negotiations had a 15% chance of finishing in November or December, and a 80% chance of finishing before the end of the year.  I probably should have gone with a more gradual rate of decline in my odds for this question; as it is, I said it was more than 3 times more likely that negotiations would end in September or October then November or December.
  • The implied Hydro One IPO Valuation was between $11.91 billion and $12.5 billion.  I said there was a 25% chance of a valuation in this range.  The range of possible valuations given before the IPO seems to have been fairly accurate.

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