Year-End Post-Mortem: Ottawa Retail

A lot of my questions were scheduled to last until the end of the year.  I'll be going through these questions in the next few weeks.  Today, I'll look at my Ottawa retail questions.

• None of the Target stores in Ottawa were replaced by Giant Tiger, Goodlife Fitness, or Loblaw stores (see my posts Target Stores: Giant Tiger, Target Stores: Goodlife Fitness, and Target Stores: Loblaw).  I gave, respectively, 30%, 30%, and 85% chances of this outcome.  There are also Empty Target Stores, which I said had a 65% chance of happening.  Overall, only 1 of 4 of my "Will this store replace Target?" questions happened (the Walmart one), while I gave average odds of 58%.  I definitely overestimated the odds that specific stores would replace Target.
• All Sears, Chapters/Indigo, and Staples stores in Ottawa remained open through 2015 (see my posts Sears in Ottawa, Chapters/Indigo in Ottawa, and Staples in Ottawa).  My odds were 75%, 70%, and 40%.  As well, the Lincoln Heights Walmart is still open, which I said had a 55% chance of happening.  Overall, of my 5 official "retail closure" questions, only one triggered (the Future Shop/Best Buy one), while I gave an average 36% chance of a closure.  This suggests I might have slightly overestimated the rate of retail closures.