Canada Post Strike v2

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 55%

Since my last post, Canada Post has given notice that it plans to lock out workers (see article here).  I am increasing my odds of a strike or lockout accordingly.

Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• A federal law regulating assisted suicide has been passed, slightly after the Supreme Court extended deadline.  In February 2015, I said there was only a 20% chance that a law would not be passed before the existing law was struck down (in my post Assisted Suicide Law).  This may have been a bit too low.  In November 2015 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v2) , I said there was a 50% chance that the February 2016 deadline would be extended, as it was.  This might have been a slightly under-confident estimate.  In February 2016 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v3), I said there was a 25% chance that the existing law would expire, which again might have been too low of an estimate.  Finally, this June (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v4). I said there was a 40% chance a new assisted suicide law would be passed by the end of June.  Overall, I may have been too confident that a law would be passed by the deadline, but not confident enough that a law would be eventually passed.
• The federal government has created an Electoral Reform Committee.  I said there was a 45% chance that such a committee would be created by the end of June,
• A CPP Expansion Agreement has been reached (also see my post CPP Expansion Agreement v2).  Last December, I said there was a 25% chance of such an agreement being reached, which I later increased to 50%.  Both estimates may have been too low.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 50%

Since my last post, more support has been expressed for supervised injection sites (see article here).  I am thus increasing my forecast.  However, the timeline for this question is still fairly tight.

Trans Mountain Pipeline

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal government approve the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion?
Yes: 65%

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was recently approved by the NEB (see article here). The federal government must now make a decision.  From this article, it sounds like the government has not yet made a decision.  I tend to think that it is slightly more likely than not that the government will approve the pipeline, given the NEB approval and the government's statements.

CPP Expansion Agreement v2

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 50%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Another federal-provincial meeting is taking place on Monday regarding CPP expansion (see article here).  There seems to be more support for expansion than I noted in my previous post, with the BC premier now clearly supporting it.  I am thus increasing my odds of an agreement eventually being reached.

Canada Post Strike

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 40%
(If a new contract is ratified, this question will immediately close on No)

Contract negotiations are currently going on between Canada Post and its union, CUPW (see article here).  Canada Post has warned some customers of a "potential work stoppage" in early July, and some union officials have also indicated that a strike or lockout is imminent.  The last contract negotiations (in 2011) resulted in a 3-week strike.

The base rate of strikes is rather low, but the history in this case suggests a strike is more likely.  As well, both parties seem to be signalling that a strike is likely, although this is partly for show.  I am going with a fairly neutral forecast.

Assisted Suicide Law v4

When will a federal law regulating assisted suicide be passed?
Before the end of June: 40%
Between July 1st and December 31st: 30%
Not before the end of 2016: 30%

The June 6th deadline to pass a law regarding assisted suicide has been missed (see articles here and here).  The law has already been passed in the House of Commons, but the Senate has amended it, so the new version will have to be passed again.  The timeline seems to be "weeks".  It seems to me quite possible that a new law will take longer than that, and it is possible that no law will be passed at all in 2016.

Super Hornet Purchase

Before the end of August 2017, will the federal government officially announce that it will purchase Boeing Super Hornet fighters?
Yes: 55%
(The purchase itself does not need to take place by the end of August 2017.  Beginning a process that later leads to the purchase does not count.)

The federal government is currently considering purchasing several Boeing Super Hornet fighters, as a replacement for the current C-18 fighters (see articles here and here).  There is some controversy because the government is allegedly planning to sole-source the fighters, as opposed to holding an open competition.  The government has not yet officially made a decision, but one seems to be expected soon.  Given how slowly this issue moves, I am still less than confident that an official announcement will be made in the next year.

TPP Compensation

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government announce at least $2 billion in compensation to farmers for the TPP or CETA?
Yes: 40%
("Compensation to farmers" includes compensation to food processors, etc.)

The previous federal government announced that it would provide $4.3 billion in compensation for the TPP and CETA trade deals (see story here).  The current government has not indicated if it will ratify the TPP or what compensation will be provided.  I tend to think that the current government will eventually ratify the TPP and provide compensation, but it might not happen in the time period of this question, and it might be less than $2 billion.

Post-Mortem: Federal Politics

• Canadian airstrikes in Syria were stopped by the end of March (see my post Syrian Airstrikes Canada).  Last November, I said there was a 75% chance that they would end by then, which seems reasonable.
• The government succeeded in bringing in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of February (see my post Syrian Refugee Timing v2).  Last December, I said they had a 60% chance of success, which might have been too low.  I was somewhat wary because the government had delayed the deadline from the end of December to the end of February.
• Deepak Chopra is still the (see my post Canada Post CEO Resignation).  Last December, I said there was a 65% chance he would stay in office through the end of February, after the government apparently asked him to resign.
• The Office of Religious Freedom has been closed.  In February, I said there was a 75% chance that this would happen, which might have been somewhat low.
• Liberal Membership Fees have been abolished.  A month ago, I said there was a 90% chance that this would happen, which seems about right.

Postal Days of Service

Will the panel examining Canada Post's operations recommend that it change the number of days of service?
Yes: 40%

There have been some suggestion that Canada Post might reduce the number of days of service (see article here).  This seems to be more likely than postal banking, but far from a sure thing.

Canada Post Banking

Will the panel examining Canada Post's operations recommend that it enter the banking business?
Yes: 25%
(If the panel is dismissed without offering any recommendations, that will count as a No)

The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here).  The postal union has suggested that Canada Post re-enter the banking business.  The government has not ruled out this suggestion.  Based on my general tendency to guess the continuation of the status quo, I think that the panel will not recommend that Canada Post enter banking.

Canada Post Community Mailboxes v2

Before the end of June 2017, what will be officially announced regarding Canada Post's community mailbox conversion program?
Community mailbox conversions will resume: 20%
No Announcement will be made: 45%
Home delivery will be restored in some areas: 35%
(see my post Canada Post Community Mailboxes for conditions)

The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here).  Given the amount of time that has passed, it now seems more likely to me that the government will ultimately decide for the status quo for home delivery.  Contrariwise, continued community mailbox conversions seem less likely.

Electoral Reform Legislation

Before the end of June 2017, will federal electoral reform legislation be introduced?
Yes: 60%
(Legislation to hold a referendum would count, but legislation that makes small changes to the electoral system would not.)

The federal government has formed a committee to study electoral reform options (see article here).  It had previously promised to introduce legislation within 18 months of forming the government.  At this point, that seems fairly ambitious, although still possible.

Civic Hospital Site

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government and the Ottawa Hospital announce a new site on the Central Experimental Farm for the Civic Campus?
Yes: 40%
(A specific site must be chosen, and the announcement must have the agreement of both parties.)

The Ottawa Hospital is currently considering 4 sites for a new Civic Campus, 3 of which are on the Central Experimental Farm (see article here).  I'm not sure what the expected timeline is to be, but it seems likely that a site on the Farm will eventually be chosen.  However, it may not happen in the next year.

MTS Sale v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the proposed acquisition of MTS by Bell close?
Yes: 70%

Bell has announced that it plans to take-over MTS, a Manitoba telecom (see articles here and here).  The deal is expected to close in "early 2017".  There seems to be some political opposition to the deal due to competition concerns.  Still, it seems more likely than not that the deal will close on schedule.

Liberal Membership Fees

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal Liberal Party decide to abolish membership fees?

Yes: 90%

The Liberals are currently considering abolishing membership fees (see article here).  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed support for the change, as has the national board of the Liberal Party.  However, the proposal still needs to receive approval from the party at large in its May convention.  This seems like it should be a formality.

Electoral Reform Committee

When will the federal government create a electoral reform committee?
Before the end of June 2016: 45%
Between July and December 2016: 35%
Not in 2016: 20%

The federal government has promised to table electoral reform legislation within 18 months of forming the government, after forming a committee to study options (see article here).  They have not yet formed a committee.  I think they will do so in the relatively near future.

Marijuana Legalization

Before the end of June 2017, will a federal law legalizing marijuana be passed?
Yes: 45%
(A yes answer requires the law to receive royal assent)

The federal government has promised to introduce legislation legalizing marijuana by "spring 2017" (see article here).  They seemed to have delayed somewhat in creating legislation, so it is quite possible that they will not be able to introduce legislation by then (or at least pass it by the end of next June).

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 15%

The Sandy Hill Community Health Centre is seeking federal approval for a supervised injection site (see article here).  With the appropriate approval, the Centre hopes to open the site by "spring 2017".  The mayor and police chief are opposed, but some councillors and the medical officer of health support it.  I think the lack of approval from municipal authorities will be sufficient to stop this proposal, or at least delay it beyond the end date of this question.