CPP Expansion Agreement v2

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 50%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Another federal-provincial meeting is taking place on Monday regarding CPP expansion (see article here).  There seems to be more support for expansion than I noted in my previous post, with the BC premier now clearly supporting it.  I am thus increasing my odds of an agreement eventually being reached.

Ontario Budget Deficit 2017

What will be the Ontario government budget balance for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, according to the 2017-2018 budget as originally tabled?
A surplus of more than $5 billion: 10%
A surplus of less than $5 billion: 40%
A deficit of less than $5 billion: 25%
A deficit of more than $5 billion: 25%

The Ontario government is projecting a modest surplus for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, after a projected deficit of $4.3 billion in 2016-2017 (see articles here and here).  The projection seems reasonable, according to Ontario's Financial Accountability Officer.  This year, the government's projected deficit for 2016-2017 decreased from the 2015 budget to the 2016 budget.

I think the most likely outcome is a small surplus.  However, unexpected events could lead to a relatively large deficit, or at least a small deficit.  A large surplus seems unlikely.

Photo Radar Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the province approve the City of Ottawa's request to use photo radar?
Yes: 70%
(If the city withdraws the request before the province makes a decision, that counts as a "No",  The province does not need to approve the request unconditionally for a "Yes".)

The City of Ottawa is asking the province for permission to use photo radar in school zones (see article here).  The province has expressed willingness to approve such proposals.  My sense is that the City's request will probably be approved in the relatively near future.

Presto Rate Ottawa

What rate will Metrolinx and the City of Ottawa agree on for Presto services?
3% or less: 10%
Between 3% and 5%: 20%
Between 5% and 7%: 40%
Between 7% and 9%: 20%
More than 9%: 10%
(This question will close when an agreement is reached.  If the parties fail to reach an agreement by the end of 2017, the question will be voided.  The percentage is based on the percentage of Presto fares; if an agreement is reached on some other basis, it will be converted to a percentage of Presto fares.)

The City of Ottawa and Metrolinx are currently in discussions regarding the fee paid for Presto services (see articles here and here).  The City currently pays 2% of Presto fares to Metrolinx,  Metrolinx wants 10%, and the city has budgeted 4% going forward.  The TTC pays 5.25%.  It seems most likely that the City will eventually pay a fee in the 5% to 7% range, although it is possible they might end up paying more or less than that.  A fee of less than 3% seems unlikely, as does a fee of greater than 9%.

Maple Syrup Quota Quebec

Before the end of March 2017, will the Quebec government officially announce that it is ending its maple syrup quota system?
Yes: 25%

A recent report called for the Quebec government to end its maple syrup quota (see article here).  Some maple syrup producers seem to support the quota, while others seem to be opposed.  My default position in this sort of case is to guess that the current status quo will continue, especially over the relatively short time frame of this question.

Manitoba Election v2

Which party will the most seats in the next Manitoba provincial election?
PC: 91%
NDP: 5%
Liberal: 4%

Since my last post, the PCs and NDP have slipped slightly in the polls, and the Liberals have gained slightly (see article here).  The PCs still have a substantial lead however, so I am increasing my confidence for a PC win.

OLG Lockout v2

When will an agreement be reached between OLG and its employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway?
Before the end of April: 35%
In May or June: 25%
In July or August: 15%
Not before the end of August 2016: 25%
(In order for the agreement to count, it must be ratified by OLG workers.  However, the relevant date is the date of the agreement being reached, not the date of ratification)

There has still been no settlement to the lockout at Rideau Carleton Raceway (see article here, and my previous post here).  I still think a settlement is likely relatively soon, but I am more pessimistic than I was, given the apparent lack of progress.

Saskatchewan Election v2

Which party will win the most seats in the next Saskatchewan general election?
Saskatchewan Party: 95%
NDP: 5%

The Saskatchewan Election will be held on April 4th, about a month from now (see my previous post here, and 308's coverage here).  The Saskatchewan Party has slipped slightly in the most recent poll, and the NDP have gained; the Saskatchewan Party now only has a 52% to 34% lead.  However, the NDP are running out of time to make further gains, so I am increasing my confidence in a Saskatchewan Party victory.

CPP Expansion Agreement

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 25%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Canadian Finance Ministers recently met to discuss CPP expansion, among other issues (see articles here and here).  They decided to hold further meetings in June and December of 2016.  The federal government promised to expand CPP during the last election campaign.  The Ontario government is supportive, while many other provincial governments seem to be opposed, at least to some extent.  In order to expand CPP, at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population need to agree.  Given the current level of opposition, I don't think that this level of support can be obtained, at least in 2016.

OLG Lockout

When will an agreement be reached between OLG and its employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway?
Before the end of December: 35%
In January: 35%
In February: 15%
Not before the end of February: 15%
(In order for the agreement to count, it must be ratified by OLG workers.  However, the relevant date is the date of the agreement being reached, not the date of ratification)

OLG employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway have been locked out since December 16th, due to the lack of a settlement between them and OLG (see article here).  The reduction in service seems to be fairly modest.  A similar lockout in Brantford earlier this this year lasted three weeks (see story here).  A three-week lockout would last until January 6th, so it seems likely that an agreement will be reached in December or January.  It is conceivable that the lockout could drag on into February or later.

Hydro One IPO Valuation

What will be the implied valuation of Hydro One from its IPO?
Less than $11.31 billion: 25%
Between $11.31 billion and $11.91 billion: 25%
Between $11.91 billion and $12.5 billion: 25%
More than $12.5 billion: 25%
(The implied valuation is the amount of money raised divided by the proportion of Hydro One sold. If the Hydro One IPO does not take place before the end of 2016, this question will be cancelled.)

The Hydro One IPO is scheduled for this November (see stories here and here).  Up to 15% of the company is to be sold for between $1.54 billion and $1.7 billion, valuing the company as a whole at $11.31 billion to $12.5 billion.  The implied valuation seems to have decreased substantially from previous estimates of $13.5 billion to $15 billion in April.

I think the current estimated valuation range may well be off in either direction.  It may depend on how well the Canadian market does in the lead-up to the IPO.  My guess would be that the valuation would tend to be a bit optimistic.  However, the current quoted prices probably don't fully take into account how well the market has done in the past week or so, so might tend to be pessimistic for that reason.  I'm going to guess that those two effects roughly wash out, so the estimated valuations are accurate.

Manitoba Election

Which party will the most seats in the next Manitoba provincial election?
PC: 85%
NDP: 10%
Liberal: 5%

The next general election in Manitoba is scheduled for April 2016.  Current polls give the PCs 46% of the vote, the NDP 29%, and the Liberals 20%.  The NDP currently form the government.  Given the 17% lead the PCs enjoy in the polls however, they are very likely to win the election.  The Liberals haven't formed the government in Manitoba since they lost the election of 1958, and seem to now be stuck with third party status.  They are even less likely to win then the NDP.

Simcoe North By-election Result

Who will win the by-election in the provincial riding of Simcoe North?
Patrick Brown: 90%
Fred Larsen: 9%
Elizabeth Van Houtte: 1%

There will be a by-election in Simcoe North on September 3rd, to allow the new PC leader, Patrick Brown, to take a seat in the legislature.  In the last election, Simcoe North went fairly solidly to the PCs; they got 44% of the vote, the Liberals got 33%, and the NDP 16%.  Given the advantage Brown should have as party leader, and given that the PCs have gained relative to the Liberals since the last election, Brown should be able to win this seat easily.

New Brunswick Liquor Limits

Will the New Brunswick provincial court find that interprovincial liquor limits are unconstitutional in the case of Gerard Comeau?
Yes: 20%
(The initial decision of the court is all that matters for this question; results on subsequent appeals do not matter.  This question is about the constitutionality of liquor limits, not the judgement against Comeau per se.  A partial finding of unconstitutionality counts)

Gerald Comeau, a New Brunswick resident, is currently challenging a New Brunswick law which limits importation of alcohol into New Brunswick from other provinces (see story here).  He had been caught transporting alcohol into New Brunswick from Quebec by the RCMP.

This sort of case seems like a tough fight for the defendants.  The law in question has been around for a long time, as have interprovincial trade barriers more generally.  The Supreme Court seems to have acquiesced to such barriers in a 1921 decision.  Part of the purpose of this sort of case is to generate discussion about the law in question, even if the case itself is ultimately unsuccessful.

Ottawa Teachers' Strike v2

Q198: Before the end of 2015, will classes in Ottawa schools be cancelled due to labour action?
Yes: 60%
(This question requires a significant number of schools to stop offering classes; one or two schools would not be sufficient.  The length of the cancellation must be at least one day.  The schools can be in the public or Catholic English boards, and can be elementary or high schools)

As I noted in my recent post, there is the possibility of an Ottawa teachers' strike if negotiations between the province and the unions do not go well.  In the recent round of bargaining,
there have already been teachers' strikes elsewhere in Ontario, and some unions in Ottawa have started work-to-rule campaigns.  Given the level of unrest, I think that there probably will be a teachers' strike of some sort in some board in Ottawa, although it may not last very long.  The current round of bargaining has been going on for a long time with very little progress.

Ontario Teachers' Negotiations

Q195: When will a new contract be reached between the Ontario government and the Elementary Teachers Federation?
Before September 8th: 15%
Between September 8th and October 31st: 50%
Between November 1st and December 31st: 15%
Not before the December 31st: 20%
(The contract needs to be accepted by union members to count for the purposes of this question, although the date that counts is the date the contract is reached, not the date it is voted upon)

The Elementary Teachers Federation, which represents public elementary teachers, has not yet reached an agreement with the province after their old one expired (see my previous post here, and more recent story here).  Teachers at some boards have been launching work-to-rule campaigns, and a strike is also possible.  The province and the union do not have any negotiations scheduled.

My sense is that nothing substantive will happen before classes start in the fall (on September 8th).  The union will likely call a strike deadline around that time, and negotiations will begin in earnest.  A new contract will probably be reached not long afterwards (possibly averting a strike).  However, it is possible that negotiations will drag on through the fall, and that a contract will not be reached until November or December (or possibly even later).  It is also possible that a contract will be reached in the summer, although there doesn't seem to be any pressure to reach a contract at this point.

Quebec City NHL

Q157: Before the end of 2016, will the NHL officially announce that it is granting a franchise to Quebec City?
Yes: 10%
(Both an expansion franchise and a relocated franchise count)

There has been persistent speculation about Quebec City receiving a NHL franchise again (The Nordiques were in the NHL from 1979-1995).  They have built a new stadium, the Videotron Centre, in hopes of luring a new team.  There are a number of other competitors for new NHL teams, including Las Vegas, Seattle, and Toronto.

I think that it is quite unlikely that Quebec City will get a new team.  Quebec City is a very small market for a major-league team, and they had financial problems the last time.  In particular, the low value of the Canadian dollar would be a problem for them.  Even if Quebec City were to get a new team, they might not get it in the relatively short time period of this question.

Ottawa Teachers' Strike

Q120: When will classes in Ottawa elementary schools be cancelled due to labour action?
Before May 31th: 25%
Between June 1st and December 31, 2015: 25%
Not before December 31, 2015: 50%
(This question requires a significant number of schools to stop offering classes; one or two schools would not be sufficient.  The length of the cancellation must be at least one day)

Ottawa elementary school teachers will be beginning the first phase of labour action this week, as part of negotiations with the school board and the province (see article here and here).  If negotiations go poorly, they could decide to strike, leading to class cancellations.

News articles don't give much of a sense about the likelihood and timing of a strike.  My sense is that a strike has about a 50% chance of happening (given the strike by the Durham teachers' union), and it is quite possible that a strike could begin by the end of the month.

Alberta Election v2

Q112: What will be the result of the upcoming Alberta provincial election?
PC Minority/Majority: 15%
Wildrose Minority: 10%
Wildrose Majority: 5%
NDP Minority: 35%
NDP Majority: 35%

Since my last prediction, the situation in Alberta has changed substantially.  The NDP have gained substantially in the polls, at the expense of the three other major parties.  Polling now suggests that the NDP have about 40% of the vote, the Wildrose 25% and the PCs 20%.  Those numbers would suggest a NDP majority, although a NDP minority is also possible.  There seems to be some scepticism about the latest polls, which also seem to indicate that most Albertans expect the PCs to win.  NDP support seems to be somewhat concentrated in Edmonton.  Previous elections in 2012 and 1989 also had polls suggesting lacklustre PC support, but the PCs won handily in both elections.

I still think that a NDP minority or majority is the most likely outcome; their lead in the polls is considerable.  However, given the tenuousness and concentration of their support, I think it is quite likely that they will only get a minority.  If the NDP don't win, the PCs and Wildrose are about equally likely to win.  The PCs have a stronger organization, while the Wildrose are leading slightly in the polls over the PCs.

BC Teacher Rights

Q110: Will the BC Court of Appeal rule that 2002 provincial legislation on class size and composition violated teachers' charter rights?
Yes: 60%

The BC Court of Appeal is expected to rule today on whether 2002 provincial legislation unconstitutionally restricted teachers' collective bargaining rights (see article here).  The lower BC.Supreme Court has ruled that it did.  The provincial premier, Christy Clark, expects that the Court of Appeal will overturn the BC.Supreme Court's judgement.

I think that the Court of Appeal will probably side with the lower court, as this is the most common outcome.  The premier's comments may just be bravado.