- The Spanish election held last December did not lead to the formation of a stable government. Thus, I have decided to void my Spanish PM and Spanish PM v2 questions. These seemed like reasonable questions at the time, but they unfortunately assumed that a stable government would be formed as a result of the December election.
- The Austrian Presidential Election resulted in the election of Alexander Van der Bellen. I said he had a 35% chance of winning, which was the highest I gave any candidate. I might have been under confident for this question, although the final result was fairly close.
- The Dominican Republic Election was won by Danilo Medina, whom I said had a 77% chance of winning.
- The Peruvian Election was won by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. I said he had a 10% chance of winning, but I gave the same percentage chance to two other candidates. I think this was a fairly reasonable prediction.
Thursday, 7 July 2016
Post-Mortem: International Politics
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Post-Mortem
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