Trans Mountain Pipeline

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal government approve the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion?
Yes: 65%

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was recently approved by the NEB (see article here). The federal government must now make a decision.  From this article, it sounds like the government has not yet made a decision.  I tend to think that it is slightly more likely than not that the government will approve the pipeline, given the NEB approval and the government's statements.

Post-Mortem: Business

• The Charter Time Warner Merger has completed.  Last May, I said there was a 30% chance the deal would complete.  At that point, there was still substantial uncertainty over whether the deal would go through.  Still, a 50% estimate (based on market movements) might have been better than a 30% estimate.
• Staples and Office Depot abandoned their merger, after US regulatory opposition (see my post Staples Merger Case).  Last December, I said there was a 75% chance that the merger would be abandoned.
• The LCBO waterfront lands have been sold to Menkes Developments (see my post LCBO Land Sale).  Last December, I said there was a 85% chance a sale would happen before the end of 2016, and a 50% chance of a sale to a company other than Wittington Properties (which was one of the bidders).
• There were no Bank of Canada interest rate changes in April or May (see my posts Canada Interest Rate April and Canada Interest Rate May).  I said there was a 75% chance of no change in April, and a 85% chance of no change in May.  Overall, I think I may have been over-predicting change.

Trump Tower Toronto

Before the end of June 2017, will the Trump Tower in Toronto be renamed?
Yes: 60%
(The renaming must remove Trump's name from the tower. A name like "T tower" would count for this purpose)

The Trump tower in Toronto is close to a sale, according to some recent reports (see article here).   It has been suggested that the new owner might change the Tower's name, although the Trump Organization claims that they can't do so.  Given the change in ownership, it seems likely to me that the tower will be renamed, even if the new owner retains some connection to the Trump Organization.  It is also possible that tower will be renamed eventually, even if it is not renamed immediately after the sale.

MTS Sale v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the proposed acquisition of MTS by Bell close?
Yes: 70%

Bell has announced that it plans to take-over MTS, a Manitoba telecom (see articles here and here).  The deal is expected to close in "early 2017".  There seems to be some political opposition to the deal due to competition concerns.  Still, it seems more likely than not that the deal will close on schedule.

Mitel-Polycom Merger

Before the end of 2016, will the proposed merger between Mitel and Polycom close?
Yes: 85%

Mitel and Polycom have announced that they plan to merge (see article here).  The merger is expected to close in the third quarter, but still needs approval from regulators and shareholders.  My sense is that this approval is largely a formality.  However, the merger could still be called off if market conditions change significantly.

Post-Mortem: Business Questions

• Allstream was sold to Zayo Group (see my post Allstream Sale).  Last September, I said there was 65% chance that Allstream would be sold by the end of this August, and a 15% (unconditional) chance that Allstream would be sold to some company other than Rogers, Bell, or Telus.  As usual, I might have given the "Other" option too small of a chance.
• Rexall is being acquired by McKesson Corp. (see my post Rexall Acquisition).  Last September, I said there was a 15% chance that Rexall would be acquired by the end of 2016.  I'm not sure this wasn't a bad estimate; acquisitions aren't that common, and there didn't seem to be any specific information suggesting that Rexall was going to be acquired soon.
• The Canadian Oil Sands Acquisition by Suncor has closed.  Last October, I said there was a 50% chance that Canadian Oil Sands would be acquired by the end of 2016, and a 20% chance that Suncor would acquire them.  Given that Suncor was actively pursing Canadian Oil Sands at the time, these numbers may have been a bit low.
• The Corus-Shaw Deal has closed.  In March, before it received regulatory approval, I said there was a 75% chance it would close, which seems reasonable.
• The CP-NS merger has been called off.  I said there was a 20% chance the merger would go through in 2016, which seems reasonable.

Ottawa Taxi Reform

Before the end of June 2016, will Ottawa City Council approve the proposed reforms to taxi regulations?
Yes: 80%

On Friday, the City of Ottawa community and protective services committee approved a number of regulations to reform the taxi industry (see article here).  The issue goes before the full City Council on Wednesday.  Ottawa mayor Jim Watson is supportive of the changes, as is committee chair Diane Deans.  However, a number of councillors appear to be opposed.  My sense is that the reforms will be approved, although it is possible that the opposition will be significant enough to block the reforms (or delay approval beyond the end of June).

Corus-Shaw Deal

Before the end of 2016, will Corus's deal to buy Shaw Media close?
Yes: 75%
(The deal ultimately reached must be substantially similar to the currently proposed deal.  If the current deal is abandoned, this question will close as a "No")

Corus Entertainment has made an offer to buy Shaw Media (see articles here and here).  The deal recently received approval from Corus shareholders, and CRTC approval is expected later this month.  It seems quite likely that the deal will close before the end of the year, given the current pace of events.  Having said that, Bell's previous purchase of Astral media, which was similar in scale, apparently had more than a year of regulatory delays.

Via Federal Rail Car Funding

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will provide at least $1 billion for Via to buy new rail cars?
Yes: 65%

There has been speculation that Via will receive federal funding to buy new rail cars (see article here).  The federal Minister of Transport has hinted, but not confirmed, that there will be funding in the budget.  This seems very likely to happen, but it is possible it might not happen this year.

Evergreen Line Opening

When will the Evergreen Line in Metro Vancouver open?
In 2016: 5%
In January or February 2017: 25%
In March or April 2017: 25%
In May or June 2017: 20%
Not before the end of June 2017: 25%
(This question is about the start of regular commercial service, not just testing.  The entire line does not need to open, just a significant part of it.)

The Evergreen Line is a under-construction rail transit line in Metro Vancouver.  Service was originally supposed to start on it in fall 2016, but has been pushed back to "Early 2017" (see article here).  I think the line will probably before the end of April 2017, although it could open later than that.  Most of the construction seems to already be complete, so further delays seem less likely.  I think the line is very unlikely to open early.

Zibi Move-In

By the end of June 2017, will any residents move into the Zibi condo complex?
Yes: 80%

The Zibi development, on the Ottawa River, is currently under construction (see article here).  The projected move-in date is "Spring 2017".  Some aboriginal groups oppose the development, and it is conceivable that it could be delayed or cancelled because of that.  Ordinary construction delays could also push the move-in date past Spring 2017.  I think that the move-in will most likely happen on schedule, but this is not absolutely certain.

Online Sales Exemption

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it plans to increase the duty-free exemption for products purchased online?
Yes: 20%

The federal government is said to be considering an increase in the duty-free exemption for items purchased online (see article here).  The article does not quote any specific sources in the government, although the Liberals supported a higher exemption when the Conservatives were in power.  The exemption in Canada has not been changed since 1985, and is much lower than most other comparable countries.  I think that the exemption will eventually be increased, but not necessarily in 2016.

NFL LA Relocation

By the end of 2016, which NFL teams will relocate to Los Angeles?
Zero teams: 30%
The San Diego Chargers only: 30%
The Oakland Raiders only: 10%
The St. Louis Rams only: 15%
Two or more teams: 15%
(The relocation must actually happen by the end of 2016, not just be announced)

Three teams have applied to move to Los Angeles for the next NFL season (see article here).  There seems to be a real possibility that more than one team could move to LA.  In October, a sports bookmaker suggested that there was at most a 60% chance of zero teams, a 40% chance of one team, and a 17% chance of two teams (see article here).  In August, another bookmaker suggested that the Chargers had at most a 59% chance of moving to LA, the Rams a 47% chance, and the Raiders a 8% chance (see article here).  I have the impression that the Rams are less likely to move than that, the Raiders are more likely, at least one team is rather likely to move in 2016.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Ottawa Retail

A lot of my questions were scheduled to last until the end of the year.  I'll be going through these questions in the next few weeks.  Today, I'll look at my Ottawa retail questions.

• None of the Target stores in Ottawa were replaced by Giant Tiger, Goodlife Fitness, or Loblaw stores (see my posts Target Stores: Giant Tiger, Target Stores: Goodlife Fitness, and Target Stores: Loblaw).  I gave, respectively, 30%, 30%, and 85% chances of this outcome.  There are also Empty Target Stores, which I said had a 65% chance of happening.  Overall, only 1 of 4 of my "Will this store replace Target?" questions happened (the Walmart one), while I gave average odds of 58%.  I definitely overestimated the odds that specific stores would replace Target.
• All Sears, Chapters/Indigo, and Staples stores in Ottawa remained open through 2015 (see my posts Sears in Ottawa, Chapters/Indigo in Ottawa, and Staples in Ottawa).  My odds were 75%, 70%, and 40%.  As well, the Lincoln Heights Walmart is still open, which I said had a 55% chance of happening.  Overall, of my 5 official "retail closure" questions, only one triggered (the Future Shop/Best Buy one), while I gave an average 36% chance of a closure.  This suggests I might have slightly overestimated the rate of retail closures.

845 Carling Sales Office

Before the end of 2016, will a sales office be opened for The Sky condos at 845 Carling Ave?
Yes: 25%

Richcraft, a local developer, received city approval in February to build a 1100-unit complex near Dow's Lake (see my previous post here).  Since then, they have taken no further action except for putting up a "for lease" sign on the property.  There seems to be some speculation they might be holding off because of the weak condo market, and competition from the nearby Claridge Icon (see forum posts here).  I think that nothing will happen in 2016.

LCBO Land Sale

By the end of 2016, will the downtown Toronto land currently owned by the LCBO be purchased?
Yes, by Wittington Properties: 35%
Yes, by Someone Else: 50%
No: 15%
(The transaction must close for a yes answer.  In the case of multiple purchasers, "Yes, by Wittington Properties" requires only that Wittington Properties is one of the purchasers.)

Wittington Properties is one of the bidders for the LCBO lands in downtown Toronto (see article here).  There are apparently several other bidders as well.  The transaction is expected to close by March 2016.  Given the other bidders, I think that Wittington Properties will not succeed in buying the LCBO lands, although some other company probably will succeed.

Canada Post CEO Resignation

Before the end of February 2016, will current Canada Post CEO Deepak Chopra announce his resignation?
Yes: 35%
(If Chopra leaves office through some other means, that still counts)

The new Liberal government has asked Canada Post CEO Deepak Chopra to resign (see article here).  The Canada Post board of directors has rebuked this call.  My guess is that Chopra probably will not resign; the support he has received from the board of directors seems to be significant.

Staples Merger Case

Will the Competition Bureau case against the merger of Staples and the Office Depot succeed?
Yes: 75%
(If the merger is abandoned before the case is heard, that counts as a yes.  If the Competition Bureau abandons the case without the merger being abandoned, that counts as a no)

The Competition Bureau has challenged Staples's proposed merger with Office Depot, in cooperation with American and European regulators (see article here).  I think that Staples and Office Depot will probably call off the merger in light of the regulatory opposition.  If the merger is not called off, they will probably lose the case at the Competition Tribunal.

MTS Sale

By the end of 2016, will the sale of MTS be announced?
Yes: 15%
(This question will be closed for Yes if a sale closes, or an announced sale is still ongoing at the end of 2016, and closes after that.  This question will close for No if no sale is ongoing at the end of 2016)

There seems to be some speculation that MTS, a Manitoba telecom provider, will be sold, after its sale of Allstream.  MTS itself doesn't seem to be actively seeking a buyer however.  I think that a sale is possible, but unlikely.

CP-NS Merger

By the end of 2016, will Canadian Pacific and Norfolk Southern have merged or be in the process of merging?
Yes: 20%
(To be in the progress of merging, both companies must have agreed to the merger.  Not all regulatory decisions need to have been made, but those that have been made must be favourable to the merger.  The merger deal does not need to be the present one.)

Canadian Pacific has made an offer to acquire Norfolk Southern (see articles here and here).  Norfolk Southern management does not seem to be too positive on the deal, and there seem to be significant regulatory hurdles in both the US and Canada.  Last year, CP tried and failed to buy CSX, and CN's attempt to buy BNSF in 2000 ultimately failed to gain regulatory approval.  I think the likely best outcome for this deal is that it will still be in the regulatory process by the end of 2016.