Ontario Prorogation

 Before the end of June 2016, will the government of Ontario prorogue the Ontario legislature?
Yes: 40%

There is some speculation that the government will prorogue the Ontario legislature (see article here).  The government has not denied that it will do so, but has also not indicated that it will.  The article makes it sound like prorogation is almost a sure thing, but I am reluctant to assign a high probability given that most speculated events of this type don't actually happen.

Gas Plant Scandal Verdict

Will either David Livingston and Laura Miller be found guilty of the criminal offences they have been charged with relating to the gas plants scandal?
Yes: 65%
(A plea bargain counts as a "yes".  If the prosecution abandons the case, that counts as a "no".  This question is only about the most recent criminal charges and the initial outcome of the trial; further charges and appeals do not matter.)

David Livingston and Laura Miller, two senior staffers in former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty's office, have been charged by the OPP with the deletion of records in the gas plant scandal (see story here).  Both maintain their innocence.  The most likely way for this question to resolve is some sort of plea bargain (which counts as a "yes").  It is also possible (if slightly less likely) that the OPP could abandon the case.  If the case goes to trial, I think that at least one of the staffers will be found guilty on at least one charge, although it is possible that they could be found innocent.

LCBO Land Sale

By the end of 2016, will the downtown Toronto land currently owned by the LCBO be purchased?
Yes, by Wittington Properties: 35%
Yes, by Someone Else: 50%
No: 15%
(The transaction must close for a yes answer.  In the case of multiple purchasers, "Yes, by Wittington Properties" requires only that Wittington Properties is one of the purchasers.)

Wittington Properties is one of the bidders for the LCBO lands in downtown Toronto (see article here).  There are apparently several other bidders as well.  The transaction is expected to close by March 2016.  Given the other bidders, I think that Wittington Properties will not succeed in buying the LCBO lands, although some other company probably will succeed.

Simcoe North By-Election Date

Q191: Before the end of 2015, will a by-election be held in Simcoe North?
Yes: 65%

Patrick Brown, the Ontario PC leader, is planning to run in a by-election in Simcoe North, where the local MPP stepped down to allow him to have a seat.  Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has said that she will call a by-election after the October 19th federal election, although Brown asked for an earlier by-election (see story here).  The delay may or may not push the by-election past the end of 2015.  The by-election is unlikely to be held in the second half of December, given the Christmas holidays, and there may not be enough time to hold it before then.  However, given the pressure from Brown, I think that a by-election will indeed be held relatively quickly.

Stittsville High School

Q188: Before the end of 2016, will the construction of a new public English high school in or near Stittsville be officially announced?
Yes: 25%
(A somewhat tentative or conditional announcement is acceptable.)

Stittsville, a western Ottawa suburb, currently has no public high school.  There has been lobbying by parents there to build one (see article here).  The public board had a new high school for Stittsville on its list of priorities since 2006.

This sort of thing often happens very slowly.  Given that, I think there will probably be no announcement in the next year and a half.  In the longer term, Stittsville probably will get a new high school, as it seems to be rather under-served.

Hydro Ottawa Expansion

Q168: When will Hydro Ottawa officially announce that it is taking over the accounts of the remaining Hydro One customers in the City of Ottawa?
Before the end of 2015: 40%
In 2016: 20%
Not before the end of 2016: 40%
(Most, but not necessarily all, of the 45,000 Hydro One customers in the City of Ottawa must join Hydro Ottawa for this question to trigger)

Negotiations are currently taking place regarding the remaining customers of Hydro One (the provincial electricity distributor) who live in the City of Ottawa (see articles here and here).  The city would like those customers to join Hydro Ottawa, while Hydro One wants a substantial payment for transferring the customers.  These customers pay substantially more than similar Hydro Ottawa customers; they are relatively low-cost Hydro One customers, but would be relatively high-cost Hydro Ottawa customers.  Ottawa mayor Jim Watson has expressed optimism about the negotiations.  The partial Hydro One sale in the fall seems to be a soft deadline for the negotiations.

The most likely outcome is probably an agreement before the end of 2015.  The encouraging statements by the mayor, and the pressure created by the impending Hydro One sale, make this more likely.  If no agreement is reached by the end of 2015, there will probably be no agreement in 2016 at all, because of the partial Hydro One sale.

Ottawa Ranked Ballots

Q160: Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa decide to use ranked ballots in future municipal elections?
Yes: 10%
(A vote by city council counts as a decision, even if it is later reversed.  The partial use of ranked ballots counts)

The Ontario government is currently preparing legislation that would allow cities to use ranked ballots for municipal elections (see articles here and here).  Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson does not seem to be too enthusiastic at the prospect.  Given Watson's lack of enthusiasm, and the relatively short time period of this question, I am going with a low estimate.

Ride-Sharing Legalization

Q133: By the end of 2016, will either the City of Ottawa or the province of Ontario pass a law legalizing ride-sharing services?
Yes: 25%
(Requirements that ride-sharing services must meet are acceptable, as long as they are not too onerous)

The entry of UberX into the Ottawa market has led to some discussion about Ottawa's current taxi laws, and various related provincial legislation (see article here and my related post here).  The City of Ottawa is currently in the early stages of a review of Ottawa's taxi laws.  I think that the status quo will continue, at least until the end of 2016.  Regulatory changes of this type often take a long time.

Ride-Sharing Penalties

Q130: Before June 30th, 2016, will the government of Ontario pass the Protecting Passenger Safety Act?
Yes: 20%

Bill 53 (also known as the Protecting Passenger Safety Act) is a private member's bill that would increase penalties for unlicensed commercial drivers.  The law would discourage drivers of ride-sharing services, like UberX (see article here).  The bill was proposed by Ottawa South Liberal MPP John Fraser, although Nepean Carleton Conservative MPP Lisa MacLeod had earlier proposed a similar bill.

The bill seems to have some bipartisan support, although some MPPs seemed to speak against the bill in the debate.  Given the general unsuccessful fate of most private member's bills, I think that this one will probably not be successful either.

High School Strike Peel

Q122: When will Peel high school students return to class?
Before May 31st: 35%
Between June 1st and June 30th: 25%
After June 30th: 40%
(A resolution of this question requires a majority of Peel region students to return to class on a permanent basis.)

Since my previous post about the high school strike in Durham, there has been little progress in negotiations there (see recent article here).  In addition, high school teachers in Peel (the west GTA region including Mississauga and Brampton) have also gone on strike (see article here).

After 3 weeks of negotiations, there does not seem to have been much progress in Durham.  Thus, I do not expect that the strike will end quickly in Peel.  It is quite possible that the strike will not end until after the summer holidays begin.

Ring of Fire Road/Railway

Q97: Before the end of 2016, will a government or company announce that they will build a road or rail line to Ontario's Ring of Fire Belt?
Road: 23%
Railway: 10%
Both: 2%
Neither: 65%
(The proposed road or railway must connect to the existing network.  An announcement that a road or rail line "might" be built is not sufficient; there has to be a firm commitment.)

Ontario's Ring of Fire mining belt is currently not connected to the road/rail transportation network.  A provincial/federal study was recently announced to examine the idea of a building a transportation corridor that would link up the area (and some nearby First Nations reserves).  A road seems to be the preferred option, since it would do a better job of linking the First Nations reserves.

I do not think that a road or rail line will be announced; the Ring of Fire belt has been an issue for several years, and nothing concrete seems to have happened.  The general sense seems to be that development is stalled.

Ontario PC Leader v3

Q95: Who will win the Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) Leadership Race?
Christine Elliott: 40%
Patrick Brown: 60%

Since my last projection, Monte McNaughton has dropped out of the race and endorsed Patrick Brown.  Patrick Brown has also been endorsed by other prominent individuals, including Postmedia CEO Paul Godfrey.

Because of the endorsements, I am increasing my odds for Patrick Brown.  I now think he is slightly more likely to win than Elliot.  I would not be that surprised either way.

Hydro One Sale

Q78: By the end of 2015, will the Ontario government announce that Hydro One is being sold, in whole or in part?
Yes: 75%
No: 25%
(The sale could be to private or public investors, but not to another government or government-owned agency)

There have been rumours that the provincial government is considering the partial sale of Hydro One, the provincial electricity generation company, to private investors.  These rumours have neither been denied or confirmed by the Premier.

I think that a sale is a definite possibility, but not at all certain.  There would be political opposition from unions and the provincial NDP.  The ambiguous statements so far do not seem to clearly indicate what will happen.

Beer and Wine Sales

Q77: By the end of 2015, will the Ontario government announce that it will allow the sale of alcohol in supermarkets or convenience stores?
Yes: 85%
No: 15%
(This question will resolve as "yes" if a substantial number of alcoholic products can be sold in a substantial number of supermarkets or convenience stores.  Restrictions on the stores that can sell alcohol or the varieties that can be sold are acceptable.  Requiring a separate mini-store is also acceptable, as long as the mini-store is owned by the host store.)

According to a recent story, the Ontario government is considering allowing beer and wine to be sold in large supermarkets.  They had previously denied that they plan to allow the sale of alcohol in convenience stores, and cancelled a limited plan to put LCBO outlets in grocery stores.

This plan seems to be in an fairly advanced stage, and an announcement is likely imminent.  Still, the province might backtrack on the plans before officially announcing them.

Ontario PC Leadership Race v2

Q68: Who will win the Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) Leadership Race?
Christine Elliott: 60%
Patrick Brown: 35%
Monte McNaughton: 5%

The complexion of the PC Leadership race has changed significantly since my last post.  In particular, Lisa MacLeod has dropped out to support Christine Elliott, while Patrick Brown has gained momentum.  According to recent reports, Patrick Brown has signed up the most new party members, although Christine Elliot had a significant edge in fundraising.

My sense is that Christine Elliot is still the frontrunner; she has the better organization, and probably will do disproportionately well in places with few PC members (which matters given the way the election works).  According to recent numbers, Elliot signed up about as many new members as Brown.  On the other hand, Brown seems to be the clear second candidate, and is probably more likely to get the second-place votes of McNaughton supporters than Elliott is.

Nepean Conservative Candidate

Q44: Who will be the Conservative candidate for the next election in the federal riding of Nepean?
Lisa MacLeod: 50%
Steve Desroches: 10%
Jan Harder: 5%
Someone Else: 35%

John Baird was planning on running in the newly created federal riding of Nepean.  With his resignation, the race for Conservative candidate for that riding becomes open.  Lisa MacLeod, the MPP for the (larger) Nepean-Carleton provincial riding, has expressed some interest, and has dropped out of the provincial PC leadership (perhaps to run federally).  She seems to be the clear front-runner.  Steve Desroches and Jan Harder may also be candidates, according to this article, but neither has clearly expressed interest, and Harder is apparently encouraging MacLeod to run.  "Someone else" is often a good option in these sort of cases.

Beer Store Franchise Fee

Q17: Will legislation requiring the Beer Store to pay a franchise fee be passed before the end of 2015?
Yes: 60%
No: 40%

An Ontario government panel recently recommended that the Beer Store be charged a "franchise fee", in return for continuing to operate as a monopoly.  Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has expressed some support for this proposal.

I think a franchise fee is the most likely outcome of the current situation; it might not be too expensive for the brewers running the beer store, and it would increase Ontario government revenue .  A significant loosening of the monopoly would be much more disruptive and not increase revenue as much.  Continuing with the status quo would make the government look weak.  Still, a lot of things could happen, so I am hesitant to give too high odds to the franchise fee possibility.

Ontario PC Leadership Race

Q12: Who will win the Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) Leadership Race?
Christine Elliott: 85%
Lisa MacLeod: 7%
Patrick Brown: 3%
Someone Else: 5%

Christine Elliot is the clear frontrunner; she is leading in the polls by a large margin,  She also has a large lead in terms of endorsements.  Lisa MacLeod seems to be the second-place candidate.  Because the PC leadership race will use a preferential ballot, it is possible that MacLeod (or someone else) might win on a later ballot, due to second-place (or more) votes from vanquished candidates.  However, those votes might go to Elliott as well, as she does not seem to be a particularly divisive candidate.