- Jian Ghomeshi was acquitted in his recent trial (see my post Jian Ghomeshi Verdict). I said there was a 65% chance that this would happen, which might have been a bit low given how strongly the conventional wisdom at the time suggested that Ghomeshi would be acquitted.
- Mike Duffy was acquitted on all counts (see my posts Mike Duffy Verdict and Mike Duffy Jail Time). I said there was a 15% chance that he would be completely acquitted, and a 65% chance that he wouldn't face jail time. The 15% estimate might have been too low, although complete acquittal didn't seem like what the conventional wisdom suggested at the time.
- The Supreme Court found mandatory minimum drug sentences unconstitutional (see my post SC Drug Sentences). Last May, I said there was a 70% chance that this would be the Supreme Court's finding, which may have been a bit conservative.
Showing posts with label Crime. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crime. Show all posts
Wednesday, 4 May 2016
Post-Mortem: Courts
Thursday, 17 March 2016
Supervised Injection Site Toronto
Before the end of June 2016, will the City Council of Toronto approve public consultations about opening a supervised drug injection site?
Yes: 60%
Toronto's officer of health has called for Toronto to open three supervised drug injection sites (see article here). The next step seems to be holding public consultations. Toronto mayor John Tory seems to be vaguely supportive, while the police union is opposed. I think that public consultations likely will take place, but this does not seem to be completely certain.
Yes: 60%
Toronto's officer of health has called for Toronto to open three supervised drug injection sites (see article here). The next step seems to be holding public consultations. Toronto mayor John Tory seems to be vaguely supportive, while the police union is opposed. I think that public consultations likely will take place, but this does not seem to be completely certain.
Sunday, 14 February 2016
Jian Ghomeshi Verdict
Will Jian Ghomeshi be found guilty of any of the charges against him?
Yes: 35%
(The initial verdict in the current trial is all that matters.)
Jian Ghomeshi is currently on trial for the sexual assault of several women (see articles here and here). The current consensus seems to be that Ghomeshi will not be found guilty, because the defence did a good job in raising doubts about the main witnesses' credibility. At the same time, the consensus seems to be that Ghomensi would be found guilty on a "balance of probabilities" basis. Due to the latter, I am giving a higher estimate than I would otherwise give.
Yes: 35%
(The initial verdict in the current trial is all that matters.)
Jian Ghomeshi is currently on trial for the sexual assault of several women (see articles here and here). The current consensus seems to be that Ghomeshi will not be found guilty, because the defence did a good job in raising doubts about the main witnesses' credibility. At the same time, the consensus seems to be that Ghomensi would be found guilty on a "balance of probabilities" basis. Due to the latter, I am giving a higher estimate than I would otherwise give.
Saturday, 6 February 2016
Year-End Post-Mortem: Crime
- There were fewer Ottawa Shooting Incidents in 2015 then 2014 (also see my post Ottawa Shootings v2). In January, I said there was a 75% chance of this, which I decreased to 60% in November. I think my initial estimate was reasonable, but I may have over-reacted in November.
- There has been no announcement regarding the closure of the main Nunuvut Jail. I said there was a 25% chance of such an announcement, which was almost certainly too high; closing the jail would have been an extreme step to take.
- As far as I can tell, there has been no permanent ban on Toronto Police Carding. I said there was a 70% chance of such a ban. This was definitely an overestimate; the status quo (of an extended temporary ban, in this case) is almost always the most likely outcome for this sort of question.
- There was no lethal terrorist attacks in Canada in 2015 (see my post Terrorism in Canada). In January, I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably about right.
- There was no lethal Islamist Terrorism in the EU in 2015 after November 23rd. I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably too high.
- Salah Abdeslam, one of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks, has not been apprehended (see my post Salah Abdeslam Apprehension). On November 27th, I said there was a 70% chance he would be apprehended by the end of the year, which was probably too high.
Friday, 29 January 2016
Mandatory Victim Surcharges
Before the end of 2016, will the federal government introduce legislation to end mandatory victim surcharges?
Yes: 60%
(A partial repeal counts. The legislation doesn't need to actually pass in 2016, merely be introduced)
There has been some speculation that the federal government will undo the mandatory victim surcharges introduced by the previous Conservative government (see story here), As far as I can tell, the Liberals have not explicitly promised to do so. However, it seems likely that they will do so eventually, if not necessarily in 2016.
Yes: 60%
(A partial repeal counts. The legislation doesn't need to actually pass in 2016, merely be introduced)
There has been some speculation that the federal government will undo the mandatory victim surcharges introduced by the previous Conservative government (see story here), As far as I can tell, the Liberals have not explicitly promised to do so. However, it seems likely that they will do so eventually, if not necessarily in 2016.
Thursday, 24 December 2015
Marijuana Conviction Pardons
By the end of 2016, will the federal government announce a large-scale pardon for those convicted of marijuana convictions?
Yes: 40%
(A pardon only needs to be announced by the end of 2016, not implemented. Not everyone convicted needs to be pardoned, but a significant number of people must be pardoned)
There is some speculation that the new federal government will pardon those with minor marijuana convictions as part of the process of legalization (see article here). The relevant minister, Jody Wilson-Raybould, has not yet indicated what the government plans to do. Although some sort of pardon is likely in the medium term, 2016 may be too early for a pardon to occur.
Yes: 40%
(A pardon only needs to be announced by the end of 2016, not implemented. Not everyone convicted needs to be pardoned, but a significant number of people must be pardoned)
There is some speculation that the new federal government will pardon those with minor marijuana convictions as part of the process of legalization (see article here). The relevant minister, Jody Wilson-Raybould, has not yet indicated what the government plans to do. Although some sort of pardon is likely in the medium term, 2016 may be too early for a pardon to occur.
Sunday, 20 December 2015
Gas Plant Scandal Verdict
Will either David Livingston and Laura Miller be found guilty of the criminal offences they have been charged with relating to the gas plants scandal?
Yes: 65%
(A plea bargain counts as a "yes". If the prosecution abandons the case, that counts as a "no". This question is only about the most recent criminal charges and the initial outcome of the trial; further charges and appeals do not matter.)
David Livingston and Laura Miller, two senior staffers in former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty's office, have been charged by the OPP with the deletion of records in the gas plant scandal (see story here). Both maintain their innocence. The most likely way for this question to resolve is some sort of plea bargain (which counts as a "yes"). It is also possible (if slightly less likely) that the OPP could abandon the case. If the case goes to trial, I think that at least one of the staffers will be found guilty on at least one charge, although it is possible that they could be found innocent.
Yes: 65%
(A plea bargain counts as a "yes". If the prosecution abandons the case, that counts as a "no". This question is only about the most recent criminal charges and the initial outcome of the trial; further charges and appeals do not matter.)
David Livingston and Laura Miller, two senior staffers in former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty's office, have been charged by the OPP with the deletion of records in the gas plant scandal (see story here). Both maintain their innocence. The most likely way for this question to resolve is some sort of plea bargain (which counts as a "yes"). It is also possible (if slightly less likely) that the OPP could abandon the case. If the case goes to trial, I think that at least one of the staffers will be found guilty on at least one charge, although it is possible that they could be found innocent.
Tuesday, 15 December 2015
Ottawa Jail Strike
Before the end of April 2016, what will happen regarding Ottawa Detention Centre correctional officers?
A Strike: 25%
A Ratified Agreement, without a Strike: 60%
Neither of the Above: 15%
Ottawa jail workers recently rejected a proposed agreement with the province (see article here). There seems to be some potential for a strike. I think that a new agreement will be reached and accepted relatively shortly, without a strike, as that is what usually happens in these sorts of cases.
A Strike: 25%
A Ratified Agreement, without a Strike: 60%
Neither of the Above: 15%
Ottawa jail workers recently rejected a proposed agreement with the province (see article here). There seems to be some potential for a strike. I think that a new agreement will be reached and accepted relatively shortly, without a strike, as that is what usually happens in these sorts of cases.
Friday, 27 November 2015
Salah Abdeslam Apprehension
When will Salah Abdeslam be apprehended by the authorities?
Before December 5th: 30%
Between December 5th and the end of December: 30%
Not before the end of December: 40%
(If Salah Abdeslam dies, that counts as a apprehension, as long as the authorities are in possession of his body. This question will be based on local time in the country of apprehension)
Salah Abdeslam is a key suspect in the November 13th Paris attacks (see article here). A manhunt for him in Belgium seems to have failed to find him so far, and the authorities do not seem terribly close to finding him. I think the most likely outcome is that he will not be found before the end of the year, but it is possible that he could be found in the next week, or later in December.
Before December 5th: 30%
Between December 5th and the end of December: 30%
Not before the end of December: 40%
(If Salah Abdeslam dies, that counts as a apprehension, as long as the authorities are in possession of his body. This question will be based on local time in the country of apprehension)
Salah Abdeslam is a key suspect in the November 13th Paris attacks (see article here). A manhunt for him in Belgium seems to have failed to find him so far, and the authorities do not seem terribly close to finding him. I think the most likely outcome is that he will not be found before the end of the year, but it is possible that he could be found in the next week, or later in December.
Monday, 23 November 2015
Islamist Terrorism in the EU
Before the end of 2015, will there be another lethal Islamist terrorist attack in the EU?
Yes: 25%
(To count, the attack must result in the death of at least 3 people, not including the perpetrators)
There seems to be some fear of other terrorist attacks after the recent attack in Paris (see article here). The statistical base rate of such attacks is rather low; there have been 3 such attacks in the last 2 years, corresponding to a 14% base rate estimate before the end of the year (see Wikipedia article here). Longer time periods yield even lower estimates. Still, I think the recent attack in Paris does increase the odds slightly over the base rate.
Yes: 25%
(To count, the attack must result in the death of at least 3 people, not including the perpetrators)
There seems to be some fear of other terrorist attacks after the recent attack in Paris (see article here). The statistical base rate of such attacks is rather low; there have been 3 such attacks in the last 2 years, corresponding to a 14% base rate estimate before the end of the year (see Wikipedia article here). Longer time periods yield even lower estimates. Still, I think the recent attack in Paris does increase the odds slightly over the base rate.
Sunday, 22 November 2015
Ottawa Shootings v2
Will the number of shootings in the City of Ottawa in 2015 be higher or equal to the number in 2014 (49)?
Yes: 40%
There have been a number of recent shooting incidents in Ottawa in recent weeks (see article here and my previous prediction here). The total for the year is now 40, which is still not on pace to reach last year's record of 49 (about 45 shootings would be expected given the pace set so far this year), although it is higher than I would have expected at the beginning of year. The statistical base rate estimate would be around 6% (based on the current rate so far this year, and a Poisson distribution for the number of shootings). However, there may be an underlying reason for the high number of incidents in recent weeks, so I am going with a higher estimate.
Yes: 40%
There have been a number of recent shooting incidents in Ottawa in recent weeks (see article here and my previous prediction here). The total for the year is now 40, which is still not on pace to reach last year's record of 49 (about 45 shootings would be expected given the pace set so far this year), although it is higher than I would have expected at the beginning of year. The statistical base rate estimate would be around 6% (based on the current rate so far this year, and a Poisson distribution for the number of shootings). However, there may be an underlying reason for the high number of incidents in recent weeks, so I am going with a higher estimate.
Tuesday, 9 June 2015
New York Escapee Apprehension
Q147: When will either of the escapees from the Clinton Correctional Facility be apprehended?
Before June 13th: 50%
Between June 13th and June 30th: 20%
Not before June 30th: 30%
(This question will be resolved if either of the escapees are brought back into police custody, "dead or alive")
Last Saturday morning (June 6th), two prisoners in New York State's Clinton Correctional Facility escaped (see story here). An extensive manhunt is going on to find them, and a $100,000 reward has been offered for information leading to their apprehension. From public statements, there do not seem to have been any clear leads.
I think that at least one of the escapees will be apprehended before the end of the week; the level of attention paid to this sort of case will make it difficult for them to escape. However, if they are not apprehended by the end of the week, it is quite possible that they will not be apprehended by the end of the month.
Before June 13th: 50%
Between June 13th and June 30th: 20%
Not before June 30th: 30%
(This question will be resolved if either of the escapees are brought back into police custody, "dead or alive")
Last Saturday morning (June 6th), two prisoners in New York State's Clinton Correctional Facility escaped (see story here). An extensive manhunt is going on to find them, and a $100,000 reward has been offered for information leading to their apprehension. From public statements, there do not seem to have been any clear leads.
I think that at least one of the escapees will be apprehended before the end of the week; the level of attention paid to this sort of case will make it difficult for them to escape. However, if they are not apprehended by the end of the week, it is quite possible that they will not be apprehended by the end of the month.
Friday, 8 May 2015
SC Drug Sentences
Q117: Will the Supreme Court of Canada find that mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes are unconstitutional?
Yes: 70%
The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a BC appeal relating to mandatory minimum sentencing for drug offences. The original judge found that such sentences could constitute "cruel and unusual punishment", but this was overturned by the BC Court of Appeal.
Based on previous Supreme Court decisions (such as that relating to mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes), I think that the Supreme Court will probably decide that mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes are also unconstitutional.
Yes: 70%
The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a BC appeal relating to mandatory minimum sentencing for drug offences. The original judge found that such sentences could constitute "cruel and unusual punishment", but this was overturned by the BC Court of Appeal.
Based on previous Supreme Court decisions (such as that relating to mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes), I think that the Supreme Court will probably decide that mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes are also unconstitutional.
Wednesday, 6 May 2015
Mike Duffy Jail Time
Q115: Will Mike Duffy face jail time as a result of his currently ongoing trial?
Yes: 35%
(Probation, a suspended sentence, or an intermittent term sentence do not count)
The trial of Mike Duffy over various fraud charges continues. If convicted, it is possible that Duffy could face jail time. This article (written at the beginning of the trial) discusses the possibility of Duffy entering into a plea bargain to avoid jail time. My sense is that Duffy is somewhat unlikely to face jail time. He might only be convicted on minor charges (or no charges at all) or he might enter into a plea bargain to avoid jail time.
Yes: 35%
(Probation, a suspended sentence, or an intermittent term sentence do not count)
The trial of Mike Duffy over various fraud charges continues. If convicted, it is possible that Duffy could face jail time. This article (written at the beginning of the trial) discusses the possibility of Duffy entering into a plea bargain to avoid jail time. My sense is that Duffy is somewhat unlikely to face jail time. He might only be convicted on minor charges (or no charges at all) or he might enter into a plea bargain to avoid jail time.
Monday, 4 May 2015
Baltimore Officer Guilt/Jail Time
Q113: Will any of the six officers charged in the death of Freddie Gray be found guilty, and if so, will any face jail time?
Yes, and will face jail time: 40%
Yes, but will not face jail time: 20%
No: 40%
(A plea bargain counts as guilty. The initial verdict is all that matters, even if it is overturned on appeal. Further charges against these officers or other officers do not count for this question)
Six Baltimore police officers have been charged in the death of Freddie Gray, who was taken into police custody (see story here). The charges seem to have been unexpectedly fast and serious (I was going to predict the likelihood of charges, but the officers were charged before I had the chance to).
From the news coverage of the story, I have the impression that it will be difficult to get a conviction, especially a serious conviction that would result in jail time. Police officers in these sorts of cases seem to rarely be convicted. Still, this case might be an exception, and the number of charges and officers charged will make convictions easier.
Yes, and will face jail time: 40%
Yes, but will not face jail time: 20%
No: 40%
(A plea bargain counts as guilty. The initial verdict is all that matters, even if it is overturned on appeal. Further charges against these officers or other officers do not count for this question)
Six Baltimore police officers have been charged in the death of Freddie Gray, who was taken into police custody (see story here). The charges seem to have been unexpectedly fast and serious (I was going to predict the likelihood of charges, but the officers were charged before I had the chance to).
From the news coverage of the story, I have the impression that it will be difficult to get a conviction, especially a serious conviction that would result in jail time. Police officers in these sorts of cases seem to rarely be convicted. Still, this case might be an exception, and the number of charges and officers charged will make convictions easier.
Monday, 6 April 2015
SC Medical Marijuana
Q90: Will the Supreme Court overturn the current federal law banning consumption of medical marijuana except in dried form?
Yes: 60%
The Supreme Court is currently considering the Smith case. The main issue is whether Canadians have a constitutional right to medical marijuana in non-dried forms. Both lower courts in BC found that they did, but the federal government has appealed to the Supreme Court. I think the Supreme Court will side with the lower courts, and overturn the current law.
Yes: 60%
The Supreme Court is currently considering the Smith case. The main issue is whether Canadians have a constitutional right to medical marijuana in non-dried forms. Both lower courts in BC found that they did, but the federal government has appealed to the Supreme Court. I think the Supreme Court will side with the lower courts, and overturn the current law.
Thursday, 26 March 2015
Andreas Lubitz's motive
Q82: When will an official announcement be made regarding Andreas Lubitz's motive in crashing Germanwings Flight 4U9525?
Before the end of March: 30%
Between April 1, 2015 and the end of 2015: 25%
Not before the end of 2015: 45%
(An announcement that "no motive can be found" does not count. An announcement that Lubitz was not responsible for crashing the plane, or did not intentionally crash the plane would count. The official announcement must be based at least in part on significant evidence that is currently not public. The evidence does not need to be conclusive, and the conclusion regarding the motive does not need to be universally accepted)
Andres Lubitz was the co-pilot of the recently crashed Germanwings Flight 4U9525. Authorities say that he deliberately crashed the plane. There does not seem to be any clear evidence of motive at this point. I think that the motive may be revealed shortly, perhaps by personal effects left by Lubitz, or by interviews with family or friends.
If the motive is not revealed shortly, it is quite possible that no significant new evidence will come to light, at least before the end of 2015. Based on previous examples of this type (see a list here), the motive is often very unclear.
Before the end of March: 30%
Between April 1, 2015 and the end of 2015: 25%
Not before the end of 2015: 45%
(An announcement that "no motive can be found" does not count. An announcement that Lubitz was not responsible for crashing the plane, or did not intentionally crash the plane would count. The official announcement must be based at least in part on significant evidence that is currently not public. The evidence does not need to be conclusive, and the conclusion regarding the motive does not need to be universally accepted)
Andres Lubitz was the co-pilot of the recently crashed Germanwings Flight 4U9525. Authorities say that he deliberately crashed the plane. There does not seem to be any clear evidence of motive at this point. I think that the motive may be revealed shortly, perhaps by personal effects left by Lubitz, or by interviews with family or friends.
If the motive is not revealed shortly, it is quite possible that no significant new evidence will come to light, at least before the end of 2015. Based on previous examples of this type (see a list here), the motive is often very unclear.
Tuesday, 17 March 2015
Nunuvut Jail
Q76: By the end of 2015, will the Government of Nunavut announce that it plans to close the Baffin Correctional Centre?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(A temporary closure counts. A move to another location also counts)
Nunavut's largest jail, the Baffin Correctional Centre, was recently criticized for its poor conditions by the Auditor General. A previous report in 2013 had also found "appalling" conditions, and recommended that the jail close. There have been repeated efforts to improve conditions at the jail. According to the most recent Auditor General report, an evaluation is taking place involving "the viability of the Baffin Correctional Centre moving forward". The evaluation should be complete by April 2015.
I do not think that the jail will be closed; the Nunavut government has repeatedly failed to close it in the past, despite similar reports. It would presumably be very expensive to build a new maximum-security jail, which would have to be done if the Baffin Correctional Centre is closed. The latest report does not explicitly call for the current jail to be closed.
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(A temporary closure counts. A move to another location also counts)
Nunavut's largest jail, the Baffin Correctional Centre, was recently criticized for its poor conditions by the Auditor General. A previous report in 2013 had also found "appalling" conditions, and recommended that the jail close. There have been repeated efforts to improve conditions at the jail. According to the most recent Auditor General report, an evaluation is taking place involving "the viability of the Baffin Correctional Centre moving forward". The evaluation should be complete by April 2015.
I do not think that the jail will be closed; the Nunavut government has repeatedly failed to close it in the past, despite similar reports. It would presumably be very expensive to build a new maximum-security jail, which would have to be done if the Baffin Correctional Centre is closed. The latest report does not explicitly call for the current jail to be closed.
Saturday, 28 February 2015
York Tunnel
Q59: Will an official announcement be made by the Toronto Police regarding the purpose of the tunnel at York University before the end of 2015?
Yes, suggesting that the tunnel had a criminal or terrorist purpose: 10%
Yes, suggesting that the tunnel had some other purpose: 15%
No announcement will be made: 75%
(In order for this question to resolve, the police need to announce that they have definite evidence that the tunnel either does or does not have a criminal or terrorist purpose. There does not have to be absolute certainty. The announcement does not have to specify what the precise purpose was, but it must be known to the police)
The Toronto Police recently announced the existence of a mysterious tunnel in a wooded area near York University. There has been some speculation about why the tunnel was built. The police have announced that they do not think that the tunnel was meant for any sort of criminal purpose, but this has not been ruled out.
I think that no explanation will be made for the tunnel. Whoever constructed it could have already come forward, and have not done so. The police seem to have exhausted all leads, and there is no particular reason to expect anything further to happen.
If the purpose of the tunnel is discovered, it is unlikely to be a criminal or terrorist purpose. Although a criminal purpose would explain why the builders have not come forward, it seems less likely to begin with. Also, a criminal builder is less likely to come forward in the future.
Yes, suggesting that the tunnel had a criminal or terrorist purpose: 10%
Yes, suggesting that the tunnel had some other purpose: 15%
No announcement will be made: 75%
(In order for this question to resolve, the police need to announce that they have definite evidence that the tunnel either does or does not have a criminal or terrorist purpose. There does not have to be absolute certainty. The announcement does not have to specify what the precise purpose was, but it must be known to the police)
The Toronto Police recently announced the existence of a mysterious tunnel in a wooded area near York University. There has been some speculation about why the tunnel was built. The police have announced that they do not think that the tunnel was meant for any sort of criminal purpose, but this has not been ruled out.
I think that no explanation will be made for the tunnel. Whoever constructed it could have already come forward, and have not done so. The police seem to have exhausted all leads, and there is no particular reason to expect anything further to happen.
If the purpose of the tunnel is discovered, it is unlikely to be a criminal or terrorist purpose. Although a criminal purpose would explain why the builders have not come forward, it seems less likely to begin with. Also, a criminal builder is less likely to come forward in the future.
Thursday, 26 February 2015
Supreme Court Human Smuggling
Q57: Will the Supreme Court of Canada overturn the current federal law on human smuggling?
Yes: 65%
No: 35%
(This question will be resolved as "yes" if (any part of) section 117 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act is ruled unconstitutional)
The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments in five cases regarding human smuggling, mainly from Sri Lanka. The current law criminalizes helping an undocumented person enter Canada. This provision is the largest issue in the cases. At previous trials, the BC Supreme Court overturned the provision, but the BC Court of Appeal disagreed.
Based on the result in the assisted suicide case, I think that the Supreme Court will also overturn the current human smuggling law. That case had a similar judicial history, with the BC Supreme Court overturning the law and the BC Court of Appeal disagreeing.
Yes: 65%
No: 35%
(This question will be resolved as "yes" if (any part of) section 117 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act is ruled unconstitutional)
The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments in five cases regarding human smuggling, mainly from Sri Lanka. The current law criminalizes helping an undocumented person enter Canada. This provision is the largest issue in the cases. At previous trials, the BC Supreme Court overturned the provision, but the BC Court of Appeal disagreed.
Based on the result in the assisted suicide case, I think that the Supreme Court will also overturn the current human smuggling law. That case had a similar judicial history, with the BC Supreme Court overturning the law and the BC Court of Appeal disagreeing.
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