Q82: When will an official announcement be made regarding Andreas Lubitz's motive in crashing Germanwings Flight 4U9525?
Before the end of March: 30%
Between April 1, 2015 and the end of 2015: 25%
Not before the end of 2015: 45%
(An announcement that "no motive can be found" does not count. An announcement that Lubitz was not responsible for crashing the plane, or did not intentionally crash the plane would count. The official announcement must be based at least in part on significant evidence that is currently not public. The evidence does not need to be conclusive, and the conclusion regarding the motive does not need to be universally accepted)
Andres Lubitz was the co-pilot of the recently crashed Germanwings Flight 4U9525. Authorities say that he deliberately crashed the plane. There does not seem to be any clear evidence of motive at this point. I think that the motive may be revealed shortly, perhaps by personal effects left by Lubitz, or by interviews with family or friends.
If the motive is not revealed shortly, it is quite possible that no significant new evidence will come to light, at least before the end of 2015. Based on previous examples of this type (see a list here), the motive is often very unclear.
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