Turkish Election

Q61: How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey's next parliamentary election?
Less than 276: 15%
More than 276, less than 330: 55%
More than 330, less than 367: 20%
More than 367: 10%

Turkey is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on June 7.  The AKP currently has a parliamentary majority of 312 seats; to retain their majority, they need at least 276 seats (of 550).  They would like to win more seats in order to change the constitution. If they win more than 330 seats, they will be able to propose a referendum to change the Turkish constitution.  If they win more than 376, they will be able to change the constitution outright.  This article has more details.

The AKP is leading in the polls with around 45% of the vote.  The main opposition parties are the CHP with 26% of the vote, the MHP with 16% of the vote, and the HDP with 9% of the vote. Turkey has a unusual mixed proportional representation system, where parties with less than 10% of the vote are eliminated, and their votes are given to the party with the largest share of the vote.  Given that, with current poll numbers, the AKP would get about 319 seats (which is about what they got in the last election).  If the HDP breaks the 10% threshold, the AKP might not even get a majority.

I think that the AKP will likely get a majority; the polls suggest that this is likely, and it was what happened in the last election.  I do not think they will break the 330 or 367 seat thresholds (although they might break the 330-seat threshold if they do especially well in the election.  This article (probably from a biased source) suggests that most Turks oppose the AKP's proposed constitutional reforms, which will be a problem for the AKP.