Before the end of 2016, will the federal government pause, cancel, or significantly modify the contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia?
Yes: 15%
The government has recently been criticized for not intervening with a contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia (see article here). The Conservative government initially approved the contract, although the Liberals also supported it at the time. The current Liberal government is still supportive. I think that support will continue.
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Middle East. Show all posts
Monday, 18 January 2016
Saturday, 28 November 2015
Turkish Apology Russsia
By the end of 2015, will Turkey apologize for the downing of a Russian fighter jet?
Yes: 25%
Russia has asked for Turkey to apologize for the recent downing of a Russian fighter jet, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to do so (see story here). I think that Erdogan will stick to his guns, and no apology will be forthcoming, but the situation seems to be changing rapidly.
Yes: 25%
Russia has asked for Turkey to apologize for the recent downing of a Russian fighter jet, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to do so (see story here). I think that Erdogan will stick to his guns, and no apology will be forthcoming, but the situation seems to be changing rapidly.
Tuesday, 24 November 2015
Russian Ambassador Turkey
Before the end of 2015, will Russia recall its ambassador from Turkey?
Yes: 25%
Relations between Russia and Turkey have been strained by the recent shoot-down of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish forces (see article here). Putin has warned that the event will have "significant consequences". One of those consequences could be the recall of the Russian ambassador from Turkey. This would be a significant escalation, so I think that it is less likely than not, although still quite possible.
Yes: 25%
Relations between Russia and Turkey have been strained by the recent shoot-down of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish forces (see article here). Putin has warned that the event will have "significant consequences". One of those consequences could be the recall of the Russian ambassador from Turkey. This would be a significant escalation, so I think that it is less likely than not, although still quite possible.
Thursday, 19 November 2015
Syrian Airstrikes Canada
Will the government of Canada cease air strikes in Syria before the end of March 2016?
Yes: 75%
The new government has repeatedly pledged to end air strikes in Syria by the end of March (see articles here and here). There has been some pressure on the government to continue air strikes in light of the recent attacks in France. My sense is that the government will keep their pledge to end air strikes; if they were going to reverse themselves, they probably would have already done so.
Yes: 75%
The new government has repeatedly pledged to end air strikes in Syria by the end of March (see articles here and here). There has been some pressure on the government to continue air strikes in light of the recent attacks in France. My sense is that the government will keep their pledge to end air strikes; if they were going to reverse themselves, they probably would have already done so.
Sunday, 6 September 2015
Syrian Refugee Resettlement
By the end of 2015, how many Syrian refugees will the government of Canada agree to resettle?
Less than 15,000: 20%
Between 15,000 and 30,000: 40%
More than 30,000: 40%
(The refugees do not need to be resettled by the end of the year; this question is about the agreement to settle them. The 10,000 refugees that the government has already agreed to resettle count for the purposes of this question.)
There has been some controversy recently about how many Syrian refugees Canada should take in (see article here). The Conservative government has already agreed to resettle 10,000 refugees, while the NDP have called for 46,000 refugees to be resettled over 4 years. The Liberals want to bring in 25,000 (see article here).
Even if the Conservatives do win the election, they are likely to increase the number of refugees resettled due to the current pressure (and might well do so before the election). In this case, they are likely to increase the number to something close to what the Liberals want. If the NDP win the election, they will presumably deliver on their campaign promise, although they might not have time to do so by the end of the year.
Less than 15,000: 20%
Between 15,000 and 30,000: 40%
More than 30,000: 40%
(The refugees do not need to be resettled by the end of the year; this question is about the agreement to settle them. The 10,000 refugees that the government has already agreed to resettle count for the purposes of this question.)
There has been some controversy recently about how many Syrian refugees Canada should take in (see article here). The Conservative government has already agreed to resettle 10,000 refugees, while the NDP have called for 46,000 refugees to be resettled over 4 years. The Liberals want to bring in 25,000 (see article here).
Even if the Conservatives do win the election, they are likely to increase the number of refugees resettled due to the current pressure (and might well do so before the election). In this case, they are likely to increase the number to something close to what the Liberals want. If the NDP win the election, they will presumably deliver on their campaign promise, although they might not have time to do so by the end of the year.
Saturday, 5 September 2015
Egyptian Parliamentary Election
Which bloc will win the most seats in Egypt's upcoming parliamentary elections?
For the Love of Egypt: 35%
Al-Nour Party: 25%
Reawakening of Egypt: 10%
Egyptian Front: 5%
Some other party or bloc: 25%
Egyptian parliamentary elections are scheduled for later this year (see articles here and here). These will be the first elections after the overthrow of former President Mohammed Morsi by the military. There are a large number of parties running (see Wikipedia article here). There do not seem to be any recent opinion polls about the parties, and previous election results are not that helpful (the Islamist Freedom and Justice Party, which won the last election, has been banned in the interim).
The major blocs seem to be the Al-Nour Party (which was second in the last election) and For the Love of Egypt (which contains the New Wafd Party and the Free Egyptians Party, both of which did reasonably well in the last election). The Al-Nour Party seems to be the main Islamist party, while the For the Love of Egypt seems to be the main liberal party. Of the more minor parties, Reawakening of Egypt and Egyptian Front seem to be mainly nationalist alliances.
Given the number of parties and the volatility of Egyptian politics, I am not very confident about my predictions in these elections. It is quite possible that a new party (or a party that I overlooked) could win the election. The current government may try to sway the vote for or against certain parties (the Al-Nour Party is a likely target in this regard).
(Name changes and changes in composition do not matter for this question. If a bloc ceases to exist, a prediction for that bloc counts as a prediction for the most significant members of that bloc, if that can be determined. The result of the election is all that matters for this question, even if that result (for example) is not accepted by the current government)
For the Love of Egypt: 35%
Al-Nour Party: 25%
Reawakening of Egypt: 10%
Egyptian Front: 5%
Some other party or bloc: 25%
Egyptian parliamentary elections are scheduled for later this year (see articles here and here). These will be the first elections after the overthrow of former President Mohammed Morsi by the military. There are a large number of parties running (see Wikipedia article here). There do not seem to be any recent opinion polls about the parties, and previous election results are not that helpful (the Islamist Freedom and Justice Party, which won the last election, has been banned in the interim).
The major blocs seem to be the Al-Nour Party (which was second in the last election) and For the Love of Egypt (which contains the New Wafd Party and the Free Egyptians Party, both of which did reasonably well in the last election). The Al-Nour Party seems to be the main Islamist party, while the For the Love of Egypt seems to be the main liberal party. Of the more minor parties, Reawakening of Egypt and Egyptian Front seem to be mainly nationalist alliances.
Given the number of parties and the volatility of Egyptian politics, I am not very confident about my predictions in these elections. It is quite possible that a new party (or a party that I overlooked) could win the election. The current government may try to sway the vote for or against certain parties (the Al-Nour Party is a likely target in this regard).
(Name changes and changes in composition do not matter for this question. If a bloc ceases to exist, a prediction for that bloc counts as a prediction for the most significant members of that bloc, if that can be determined. The result of the election is all that matters for this question, even if that result (for example) is not accepted by the current government)
Thursday, 27 August 2015
Tammam Salam Leaving Office
Will Tammam Salam leave the office of Prime Minister of Lebanon before the end of 2015?
Yes: 30%
(A temporary exit from office would not count for this question)
There are currently widespread protests going in Lebanon over the lack of trash collection (see story here). Lebanon has been without a (non-acting) President for more than a year, and is currently ruled by a unity government led by Tammam Salam. Some of the protesters have called for Salam's resignation, and he has hinted that he may resign if the crisis is not resolved.
I think that Salam will stay in power, at least for the remainder of the year. His term lasts until 2017, and the current protests seem to fit in with a pattern of instability that has been going on for several years. The current protests don't seem to be severe enough to bring down the government.
Yes: 30%
(A temporary exit from office would not count for this question)
There are currently widespread protests going in Lebanon over the lack of trash collection (see story here). Lebanon has been without a (non-acting) President for more than a year, and is currently ruled by a unity government led by Tammam Salam. Some of the protesters have called for Salam's resignation, and he has hinted that he may resign if the crisis is not resolved.
I think that Salam will stay in power, at least for the remainder of the year. His term lasts until 2017, and the current protests seem to fit in with a pattern of instability that has been going on for several years. The current protests don't seem to be severe enough to bring down the government.
Wednesday, 19 August 2015
Next Turkish Election Date
Will Turkey hold a parliamentary election before the end of 2015?
Yes: 85%
Turkey's election earlier this year resulted in a hung parliament, with no party controlling a majority of the seats. Negotiations to form a governing coalition have so far failed, and it looks likely that new elections will be necessary (see story here). The elections are likely to be in November. It is possible that the coalition talks will yet succeed, or that elections could be delayed beyond the end of the year, but that does not seem likely given the current situation.
Yes: 85%
Turkey's election earlier this year resulted in a hung parliament, with no party controlling a majority of the seats. Negotiations to form a governing coalition have so far failed, and it looks likely that new elections will be necessary (see story here). The elections are likely to be in November. It is possible that the coalition talks will yet succeed, or that elections could be delayed beyond the end of the year, but that does not seem likely given the current situation.
Wednesday, 15 July 2015
US Congress Iran Deal
Q182: What will the US Congress do with regards to the recently reached Iran nuclear deal?
Approve It; 10%
Do Nothing: 25%
Reject It, but not override the Presidential Veto: 45%
Reject It, and override the Presidential Veto: 20%
(The first action shall be the one that resolves this question)
The P5+1 recently reached a deal with Iran regarding that country's nuclear program. Congress now has to decide whether to approve the deal or not. Under the terms of previously passed legislation, to effectively override the deal, Congress would need a 2/3 majority to override the presidential veto (see story here and here). However, Congress could still choose to reject the deal to make a statement. Republicans seem to be generally opposed to the deal, while Democrats are generally supportive.
From reading the news coverage, it sounds like the most likely outcome is that the deal will be rejected, but the Republicans will not have enough votes to override the presidential veto. However, it seems to me possible that Congress will do nothing (because of different levels of support in the House and Senate) or even approve the deal (although this wouldn't seem to be in the Republicans' interest).
Approve It; 10%
Do Nothing: 25%
Reject It, but not override the Presidential Veto: 45%
Reject It, and override the Presidential Veto: 20%
(The first action shall be the one that resolves this question)
The P5+1 recently reached a deal with Iran regarding that country's nuclear program. Congress now has to decide whether to approve the deal or not. Under the terms of previously passed legislation, to effectively override the deal, Congress would need a 2/3 majority to override the presidential veto (see story here and here). However, Congress could still choose to reject the deal to make a statement. Republicans seem to be generally opposed to the deal, while Democrats are generally supportive.
From reading the news coverage, it sounds like the most likely outcome is that the deal will be rejected, but the Republicans will not have enough votes to override the presidential veto. However, it seems to me possible that Congress will do nothing (because of different levels of support in the House and Senate) or even approve the deal (although this wouldn't seem to be in the Republicans' interest).
Sunday, 14 June 2015
Tal Abyad Capture
Q152: When will the IS lose control of Tal Abyad, Syria?
Before June 20th: 35%
Before July 31st: 35%
Not before July 31st: 30%
IS is currently losing territory near the city of Tal Abyad, Syria (see story here). It seems that the IS is expected to lose control of the city in the near future. I think it is more likely than not that the town will be captured before the end of July, and that it might well be captured in the next week.
Before June 20th: 35%
Before July 31st: 35%
Not before July 31st: 30%
IS is currently losing territory near the city of Tal Abyad, Syria (see story here). It seems that the IS is expected to lose control of the city in the near future. I think it is more likely than not that the town will be captured before the end of July, and that it might well be captured in the next week.
Friday, 12 June 2015
Iran Nuclear Agreement
Q150: When will Iran and the P5+1 reach a final agreement over Iran's nuclear program?
In the month of June: 25%
In the month of July: 35%
Not before the end of July: 40%
Iran and various Western countries (known as the P5+1) reached a framework agreement in early April over Iran's nuclear program (see BBC article here). They are to reach a final agreement by the end of June. Talks seem to be proceeding to reach that goal, with some speculation that an agreement will be reached before the deadline (see article here).
I think that a final agreement will probably be reached by or not that much after the deadline. I am not very confident of this however. Previous negotiations about Iran's nuclear program have featured a lot of delays, so that may happen in this case as well. If an agreement is reached, it will probably happen just after the deadline (ie. in July), not before the deadline. Negotiations of this sort rarely conclude before the deadline.
In the month of June: 25%
In the month of July: 35%
Not before the end of July: 40%
Iran and various Western countries (known as the P5+1) reached a framework agreement in early April over Iran's nuclear program (see BBC article here). They are to reach a final agreement by the end of June. Talks seem to be proceeding to reach that goal, with some speculation that an agreement will be reached before the deadline (see article here).
I think that a final agreement will probably be reached by or not that much after the deadline. I am not very confident of this however. Previous negotiations about Iran's nuclear program have featured a lot of delays, so that may happen in this case as well. If an agreement is reached, it will probably happen just after the deadline (ie. in July), not before the deadline. Negotiations of this sort rarely conclude before the deadline.
Monday, 18 May 2015
Baiji Oil Complex Capture
Q127: By the end of 2015, will the IS capture the Baiji oil complex?
Yes: 50%
The Islamic State is currently threatening to capture the Baiji oil complex in northern Iraq (see article here). The complex, which contains the largest refinery in Iraq, was re-captured by the Iraqi government six months ago. My sense is that the fate of the complex is very much an open question; it is about equally likely that it will or will not be captured by the IS.
Yes: 50%
The Islamic State is currently threatening to capture the Baiji oil complex in northern Iraq (see article here). The complex, which contains the largest refinery in Iraq, was re-captured by the Iraqi government six months ago. My sense is that the fate of the complex is very much an open question; it is about equally likely that it will or will not be captured by the IS.
Saturday, 16 May 2015
IS Palmyra
Q125: Before the end of 2015, will the IS destroy the city of Palmyra?
Yes: 40%
The Islamic State is currently attacking Syrian government forces near the ruins of the ancient city of Palmyra (see article here). If the IS captures the site, it is feared that they might destroy it, like they have destroyed other archaeological sites.
My sense is that the IS may or may not capture Palmyra, but they will very likely destroy it if they do. I am increasing my estimate because of the recent capture of Ramadi by the IS.
Yes: 40%
The Islamic State is currently attacking Syrian government forces near the ruins of the ancient city of Palmyra (see article here). If the IS captures the site, it is feared that they might destroy it, like they have destroyed other archaeological sites.
My sense is that the IS may or may not capture Palmyra, but they will very likely destroy it if they do. I am increasing my estimate because of the recent capture of Ramadi by the IS.
Saturday, 9 May 2015
Ramadi Capture
Q118: By the end of 2015, will the Islamic State capture Ramadi?
Yes: 40%
(Ramadi means Ramadi city centre. If the Islamic State captures, but later loses control of, Ramadi, it still counts)
There has been ongoing fighting in the Iraqi city of Ramadi between the IS and the Iraqi government (see Wikipedia article here). The IS controls much of the city, but the city centre is still controlled by the Iraqi government. The IS has launched several attacks to try to get control of the city centre (see articles here and here).
My sense is that the fighting in Ramadi could go either way. However, given that the IS has been trying to capture Ramadi for the past 5 months without success, I do not think it is more likely not to succeed before the end of the year.
Yes: 40%
(Ramadi means Ramadi city centre. If the Islamic State captures, but later loses control of, Ramadi, it still counts)
There has been ongoing fighting in the Iraqi city of Ramadi between the IS and the Iraqi government (see Wikipedia article here). The IS controls much of the city, but the city centre is still controlled by the Iraqi government. The IS has launched several attacks to try to get control of the city centre (see articles here and here).
My sense is that the fighting in Ramadi could go either way. However, given that the IS has been trying to capture Ramadi for the past 5 months without success, I do not think it is more likely not to succeed before the end of the year.
Tuesday, 21 April 2015
Israel Coalition Partner
Q102: Will the next Israeli government include the Zionist Union Party?
Yes: 15%
(The Zionist Union needs to be part of the governing coalition. An informal agreement would not count.)
Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the centre-right Likud party, is currently trying to form a new governing coalition after winning the recent Israeli election. There have been persistent rumours that he may include the Zionist Union (the main centre-left party), in the coalition, due to difficulties in reaching an agreement with the other right-wing parties. The Zionist union has denied that possibility. The Zionist Union might also be asked to form the government on its own if Netanyahu fails in his negotiations (this article briefly discusses that possibility).
Without being too familiar with Israeli politics, my sense is that it would be very unusual for Zionist Union to be asked to join the governing coalition, or asked to form a new governing coalition. The suggestion that they might do so, and the delay in negotiations, are probably just bargaining tactics in Netanyahu's negotiations with the other right-wing parties.
Yes: 15%
(The Zionist Union needs to be part of the governing coalition. An informal agreement would not count.)
Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the centre-right Likud party, is currently trying to form a new governing coalition after winning the recent Israeli election. There have been persistent rumours that he may include the Zionist Union (the main centre-left party), in the coalition, due to difficulties in reaching an agreement with the other right-wing parties. The Zionist union has denied that possibility. The Zionist Union might also be asked to form the government on its own if Netanyahu fails in his negotiations (this article briefly discusses that possibility).
Without being too familiar with Israeli politics, my sense is that it would be very unusual for Zionist Union to be asked to join the governing coalition, or asked to form a new governing coalition. The suggestion that they might do so, and the delay in negotiations, are probably just bargaining tactics in Netanyahu's negotiations with the other right-wing parties.
Saturday, 4 April 2015
Mosul Control
Q88: When will the Islamic State lose control of Mosul?
Before June 1st: 20%
Between June 1st and August 31st: 20%
Between September 1st and December 31st: 20%
After December 31st: 40%
(Control of the city centre is what counts for this question.)
Now that ISIS has lost control of Tikrit, the next major target for anti-ISIS forces seems to be Mosul. In late February, the US indicated a April-May timeline for the attack on Mosul to begin, although this may have be pushed back. A Yahoo News article talks about a campaign against Mosul starting in weeks.
I think that Mosul will probably be captured sometime this year, with a median time somewhere in the fall. Given that it took a month to capture Tikrit, it is quite unlikely that Mosul will be captured before June 1st.
Before June 1st: 20%
Between June 1st and August 31st: 20%
Between September 1st and December 31st: 20%
After December 31st: 40%
(Control of the city centre is what counts for this question.)
Now that ISIS has lost control of Tikrit, the next major target for anti-ISIS forces seems to be Mosul. In late February, the US indicated a April-May timeline for the attack on Mosul to begin, although this may have be pushed back. A Yahoo News article talks about a campaign against Mosul starting in weeks.
I think that Mosul will probably be captured sometime this year, with a median time somewhere in the fall. Given that it took a month to capture Tikrit, it is quite unlikely that Mosul will be captured before June 1st.
Wednesday, 25 March 2015
Aden Capture
Q81: When will the Houthis or their allies capture Aden, Yemen?
By the end of March: 30%
In April: 40%
Later or Never: 30%
(Aden means "Aden city centre".)
Houthi forces have recently captured the Aden airport, and seem poised to attack the rest of the city. According to the article, "Diplomats say they suspect the Houthis want to take Aden before an Arab summit this weekend". I think that the Houthis will capture Aden by the end of April, and quite possibly by the end of March.
By the end of March: 30%
In April: 40%
Later or Never: 30%
(Aden means "Aden city centre".)
Houthi forces have recently captured the Aden airport, and seem poised to attack the rest of the city. According to the article, "Diplomats say they suspect the Houthis want to take Aden before an Arab summit this weekend". I think that the Houthis will capture Aden by the end of April, and quite possibly by the end of March.
Saturday, 7 March 2015
Tikrit Control
Q66: By the end of March, will Iraqi troops succeed in pushing the IS out of Tikrit?
Yes: 85%
No: 15%
Iraqi forces are currently advancing on the IS-controlled town of Tikrit (the offensive started on Monday). According to this article, the IS is greatly outnumbered. They were expected to reach the outskirts of the town yesterday (March 6). From the above stories, I think that the town is very likely to be captured by the end of March. It is possible that the offensive could stall (or even be called off).
Yes: 85%
No: 15%
Iraqi forces are currently advancing on the IS-controlled town of Tikrit (the offensive started on Monday). According to this article, the IS is greatly outnumbered. They were expected to reach the outskirts of the town yesterday (March 6). From the above stories, I think that the town is very likely to be captured by the end of March. It is possible that the offensive could stall (or even be called off).
Monday, 2 March 2015
Turkish Election
Q61: How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey's next parliamentary election?
Less than 276: 15%
More than 276, less than 330: 55%
More than 330, less than 367: 20%
More than 367: 10%
Turkey is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on June 7. The AKP currently has a parliamentary majority of 312 seats; to retain their majority, they need at least 276 seats (of 550). They would like to win more seats in order to change the constitution. If they win more than 330 seats, they will be able to propose a referendum to change the Turkish constitution. If they win more than 376, they will be able to change the constitution outright. This article has more details.
The AKP is leading in the polls with around 45% of the vote. The main opposition parties are the CHP with 26% of the vote, the MHP with 16% of the vote, and the HDP with 9% of the vote. Turkey has a unusual mixed proportional representation system, where parties with less than 10% of the vote are eliminated, and their votes are given to the party with the largest share of the vote. Given that, with current poll numbers, the AKP would get about 319 seats (which is about what they got in the last election). If the HDP breaks the 10% threshold, the AKP might not even get a majority.
I think that the AKP will likely get a majority; the polls suggest that this is likely, and it was what happened in the last election. I do not think they will break the 330 or 367 seat thresholds (although they might break the 330-seat threshold if they do especially well in the election. This article (probably from a biased source) suggests that most Turks oppose the AKP's proposed constitutional reforms, which will be a problem for the AKP.
Less than 276: 15%
More than 276, less than 330: 55%
More than 330, less than 367: 20%
More than 367: 10%
Turkey is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on June 7. The AKP currently has a parliamentary majority of 312 seats; to retain their majority, they need at least 276 seats (of 550). They would like to win more seats in order to change the constitution. If they win more than 330 seats, they will be able to propose a referendum to change the Turkish constitution. If they win more than 376, they will be able to change the constitution outright. This article has more details.
The AKP is leading in the polls with around 45% of the vote. The main opposition parties are the CHP with 26% of the vote, the MHP with 16% of the vote, and the HDP with 9% of the vote. Turkey has a unusual mixed proportional representation system, where parties with less than 10% of the vote are eliminated, and their votes are given to the party with the largest share of the vote. Given that, with current poll numbers, the AKP would get about 319 seats (which is about what they got in the last election). If the HDP breaks the 10% threshold, the AKP might not even get a majority.
I think that the AKP will likely get a majority; the polls suggest that this is likely, and it was what happened in the last election. I do not think they will break the 330 or 367 seat thresholds (although they might break the 330-seat threshold if they do especially well in the election. This article (probably from a biased source) suggests that most Turks oppose the AKP's proposed constitutional reforms, which will be a problem for the AKP.
Friday, 20 February 2015
Damascus control
Q51: By the end of 2015, who will control Damascus, Syria?
The (current) Syrian Government: 90%
The Islamic State: 2%
Someone Else: 8%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)
The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011 between the Syrian government and various opposition groups, the most prominent being Islamic State. The Syrian government currently controls about half of the country, mostly in the west of the country, with Islamic State controlling much of the east of the country and various other opposition groups controlling pockets in the west of the country (see map here).
There have been attempts by opposition groups to capture Damascus before, most notably in 2012 in the Battle of Damascus. However, I think that the government will almost certainly remain in control of Damascus for the rest of the year, as they have for the past 4 years. It is very unlikely that Islamic State will capture it, given that the territories they control are a long way away. A diplomatic solution to the war (with the government losing control of Damascus) seems unlikely, but is possible.
The (current) Syrian Government: 90%
The Islamic State: 2%
Someone Else: 8%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)
The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011 between the Syrian government and various opposition groups, the most prominent being Islamic State. The Syrian government currently controls about half of the country, mostly in the west of the country, with Islamic State controlling much of the east of the country and various other opposition groups controlling pockets in the west of the country (see map here).
There have been attempts by opposition groups to capture Damascus before, most notably in 2012 in the Battle of Damascus. However, I think that the government will almost certainly remain in control of Damascus for the rest of the year, as they have for the past 4 years. It is very unlikely that Islamic State will capture it, given that the territories they control are a long way away. A diplomatic solution to the war (with the government losing control of Damascus) seems unlikely, but is possible.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)