Baiji Oil Complex Capture

Q127: By the end of 2015, will the IS capture the Baiji oil complex?
Yes: 50%

The Islamic State is currently threatening to capture the Baiji oil complex in northern Iraq (see article here).  The complex, which contains the largest refinery in Iraq, was re-captured by the Iraqi government six months ago.  My sense is that the fate of the complex is very much an open question; it is about equally likely that it will or will not be captured by the IS.