Canadian Home Prices 2016

What will be the increase in Canadian Home Prices between December 2015 and December 2016 be, according to the MLS Home Price Index (HPI)?
Less than 0%: 15%
0-5%: 40%
5-10%: 30%
More than 10%: 15%
(See the tool here.  The Aggregate (over all cities), Composite (over all property types) number will be used)

According to the MLS HPI, Canadian home prices have increased every year since 2006 except 2008, with an average increase of 5% or so.  The rate of increase has been slightly lower in recent years than before 2008.  For the 9 years 2006-2014, 1 has seen a decrease in house prices, 3 have seen a 0-5% increase, 3 have seen a 5-10% increase, and 2 have seen a 10+% increase.  I think the rate of increase in 2016 is most likely to be in the 0-5% range, but a 5-10% increase is also quite possible.

Top Canada News 2016

What category will the Google top Canadian News Story of 2016 belong to?
Politics/Elections: 25%
Terrorism/Crime: 20%
Sports/Entertainment: 20%
Business/Economics: 10%
Some Other Category: 25%
(see the "News Stories" list here for the 2015 stories.  If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)

Of the top news stories of 2015, 3 were Sports/Entertainment stories, 2 were Politics/Elections, 2 were Terrorism/Crime, and 3 were Business/Economics.  I think 2015 was an unusually good year for Sports/Entertainment stories.  The US Presidential Election and the Olympics are obvious contenders for biggest story of 2016.  An major terrorist attack could also become the biggest story.  Business/Economics rarely seem to win in this sort of competition.

My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Blue Jays Playoff Run: Sports/Entertainment
Federal Election: Politics/Elections
Pan Am Games: Sports/Entertainment
Paris Attacks: Terrorism/Crime
Charlie Hebdo Attack: Terrorism/Crime
Mayweather Pacquiao Fight: Sports/Entertainment
Donald Trump Candidacy: Politics/Elections
Greece Debt Crisis: Business/Economics
Oil Prices: Business/Economics
Ashley Madison Leak: Business/Economics

Syrian Refugee Resettlement

By the end of 2015, how many Syrian refugees will the government of Canada agree to resettle?
Less than 15,000: 20%
Between 15,000 and 30,000: 40%
More than 30,000: 40%

(The refugees do not need to be resettled by the end of the year; this question is about the agreement to settle them.  The 10,000 refugees that the government has already agreed to resettle count for the purposes of this question.)

There has been some controversy recently about how many Syrian refugees Canada should take in (see article here).  The Conservative government has already agreed to resettle 10,000 refugees, while the NDP have called for 46,000 refugees to be resettled over 4 years.  The Liberals want to bring in 25,000 (see article here).

Even if the Conservatives do win the election, they are likely to increase the number of refugees resettled due to the current pressure (and might well do so before the election).  In this case, they are likely to increase the number to something close to what the Liberals want.  If the NDP win the election, they will presumably deliver on their campaign promise, although they might not have time to do so by the end of the year.

Mobilicity Acquistion

Q159: Before the end of 2016, who will acquire Mobilicity?
Telus: 35%
Rogers: 15%
Some Other Company: 15%
Mobilicity will not be acquired: 35%
(The deal must close for this question to resolve.  If Mobilicity is split in such a way that no single company could be said to have acquired it, then the question will resolve for "Mobilicity will not be acquired")

Mobilicity, a Canadian wireless provider, entered creditor protection in September 2013 because of poor financial results.  Telus, another Canadian wireless provider, had attempted to acquire their wireless spectrum, but was blocked by the federal government.  There now seems to be speculation that Telus or Rogers will acquire Mobilicity outright (see article here).  The federal government is said to be agreeable, conditional on transfer of Mobilicity's wireless spectrum to Wind.

Given the interest they Telus has previously shown, I think that they are the most likely purchaser.  There is also a fair chance that no deal will happen before the end of next year, or that a deal will be announced and fall through.  Federal government approval does not seem to be guaranteed.  Finally, it is possible that some other wireless provider, such as Bell or Wind, could buy Mobilicity.

Car Rental Competition

Q79: Will Avis/Budget be fined at least $10 million as a result of the recent Competition Bureau complaint?
Yes: 70%
No: 30%

The Competition Bureau recently announced that it was seeking $30 million for "deceptive marketing practices" by Avis/Budget (which have common ownership).  I think that this complaint will eventually succeed, and Avis/Budget will face a significant fine (possibly less than $30 million).

Simsubbing Super Bowl Ads

Q72: Will Bell's appeal of the CRTC's Super Bowl simsubbing decision at the Federal Court of Appeal succeed in overturning that decision?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Decisions by other courts are irrelevant.  The Federal Court of Appeal must substantially overturn the CRTC's decision, but not all of the decision must be overturned)

In a recent decision, the CRTC banned simultaneous substitution (simsubbing) of ads for the Super Bowl starting in 2017.  Bell is attempting to appeal the decision at the Federal Court of Appeal.

I do not think Bell's appeal will succeed, for similar reasons as the Mobile TV App Appeal.  This case might be harder for the CRTC to defend, as the decision seems less motivated by general principles.  On the other hand, it is a smaller change, which might help the CRTC.

CraveTV / Shomi Restrictions

Q70: By the beginning of 2016, will one or both of Shomi and CraveTV be available to Canadians without requiring a telecommunications or TV subscription?
Both: 18%
Shomi Only: 8%
CraveTV Only: 4%
Neither: 70%
(This question will be resolved based on availability in Ottawa, in the case that differs from availability in other parts of the country.  Differential pricing for those with and without a subscription is acceptable, as long as prices for those without a subscription are substantially lower than the price of a subscription.  If Shomi or CraveTV are withdrawn from the market completely, they will be deemed to be not available)

Shomi and CraveTV are two new Canadian online video services launched by Rogers/Shaw and Bell/Telus, respectively.  Shomi is available only to Rogers/Shaw Internet or TV subscribers, while CraveTV is only available to Bell/Telus TV subscribers.  Two consumer groups have called on the CRTC to end these restrictions.

The most likely outcome is that Shomi and CraveTV will both require some sort of other subscription for availability (although they might both substantially expand availability).  If Bell or Rogers wanted them to be generally available, they would have launched them with general availability.  They might decide to change strategy based on early data, but I think they are more likely simply to scrap the services.   I think that the CRTC will either make no decision in 2015, decide that they don't have jurisdiction over CraveTV/Shomi, or decide that the requirement for a subscription is acceptable.

If CraveTV or Shomi are made generally available, they probably both will be (either due to a CRTC decision, or due to competitive pressures).  If only one is made available, it is more likely to be Shomi, which is more widely available now, more expensive, and whose owners are "evaluating various distribution models".

Mobile TV App Pricing

Q62: Will Bell's appeal of the CRTC's Mobile TV decision at the Federal Court of Appeal succeed in overturning that decision?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Decisions by other courts are irrelevant.  The Federal Court of Appeal must substantially overturn the CRTC's decision, but not all of the decision must be overturned)

For its mobile customers, Bell currently offers lower prices (effectively) for programming streamed using its Bell TV app.  Programming not available through the Bell TV app is thus more expensive than that available through the Bell TV app.  In a recent decision, the CRTC found that this is unlawful (this was seen as support for net neutrality).  Bell is attempting to appeal the decision at the Federal Court of Appeal.

I do not think Bell's appeal will succeed, although the stories do not make this clear.  My general sense is that overturning CRTC decisions through the legal process is a difficult thing to do.  This appeal seems more like a delaying tactic to stop the decision from going into force than anything else.

Supreme Court Human Smuggling

Q57: Will the Supreme Court of Canada overturn the current federal law on human smuggling?
Yes: 65%
No: 35%
(This question will be resolved as "yes" if (any part of) section 117 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act is ruled unconstitutional)

The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments in five cases regarding human smuggling, mainly from Sri Lanka.   The current law criminalizes helping an undocumented person enter Canada.  This provision is the largest issue in the cases.  At previous trials, the BC Supreme Court overturned the provision, but the BC Court of Appeal disagreed.

Based on the result in the assisted suicide case, I think that the Supreme Court will also overturn the current human smuggling law.  That case had a similar judicial history, with the BC Supreme Court overturning the law and the BC Court of Appeal disagreeing.

Assisted Suicide Law

Q49: When will a law be passed regulating assisted suicide?
Before the next election: 30%
After the next election, but before the existing law is struck down: 50%
Not before the existing law is struck down: 20%

The Supreme Court of Canada recently struck down the ban on assisted suicide.  The court gave Parliament 12 months to create a new law before the current law is struck down.  The government does not seem to be moving quickly on the issue, and the conventional wisdom seems to be that a law will not be proposed before the next election.  There is also some worry that no law will be drafted at all, and assisted suicide will be left unregulated (like abortion).

I think a new law before the next election is somewhat likely, but a law after the election is the most likely outcome.  However, there might not be enough time after the election to pass a new law.  The Conservatives and Liberals are about equally likely to pass a law after the election.

Canada Overnight Rate v2

Q48: What will the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate be at the end of 2015?
0.75% or lower: 70%
1.00%: 10%
1.25%: 10%
1.5%: 5%
1.75% or higher: 5%

In Q9, I predicted the Bank of Canada target rate for the end of 2015.  Since then, the bank has decreased the target rate to 0.75%, so I thought I would look at this question again.  All of the banks now seem to think the target rate will fall to 0.5% by the end of the year, before increasing in 2016-2017.  A end-of-year rate of 0.75% or less certainly seems to be the most likely outcome.  However, the bank might end up increasing rates, especially if oil prices increase (or even if they don't).  Still, a rate of 1.5% or higher seems quite unlikely.

Canadian Dollar v2

I am going to make another prediction about the Canadian dollar (Q7 was made previously).
Q41: What will the value of the Canadian Dollar in US Dollars be at the end of 2015?
Less than 80 cents: 50%
Between 80 and 85 cents: 25%
Between 85 and 90 cents: 15%
Greater than 90 cents: 10%
(The Bank of Canada exchange rate on noon of December 31, 2015 shall be used)

The Canadian Dollar is currently worth about 80 cents US (after falling from 85 cents US at the beginning of the year).  As I said in Q7, this is an area where predictions that the dollar will certainly rise or fall are not well-justified.  So my median prediction for the end of 2015 is now 80 cents.

Looking at the past 10 years of exchange rate data, the change in the exchange rate would have been sufficient to move the Canadian Dollar above 85 cents in 2.5 out of the last 10 years, and above 90 cents in 1 out of the last 10 years.  I will use those numbers for my estimates.

Canadian Inflation

Q36: What will the Canadian inflation rate be in 2015?
Less than 1%: 30%
1% to 2%: 35%
2% to 3%: 20%
3% or higher: 15%
(Definition note:  The inflation rate shall be the ratio of the CPI in December 2015 to that in December 2014 as determined by CANSIM Table 326-0020.  It was 1.5% in 2014)

The median "big bank" inflation forecast is around 1%.  However, their estimates seem to use a different definition for inflation, which leads to lower estimates.  There is a fair range in the estimates (from 0.4% to 1.4%), although this might be due to differences in definitions.  However, it seems that inflation is expected to be under 2%, and quite possibly below 1%.  Increases in oil prices (or other events) could push inflation above 2 or 3%.

SC mandatory minimum sentences

Q28: Will the Supreme Court strike down mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes?
Yes: 70%
No: 30%

The Supreme Court is currently considering a case relating to mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes.  The Ontario Court of Appeal previously ruled that the mandatory minimum sentences were "cruel and unusual punishment".  I think the Supreme Court will probably rule the same way, but am somewhat uncertain about it.

Sears in Ottawa

Q22: Will it be announced in 2015 that any of the Sears locations in Ottawa will close or change ownership?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%

 Sears Canada has recently been in serious financial trouble, with declining sales and significant financial losses.  There have been (unconfirmed, probably false) rumours that Sears Canada will enter creditor protection.

There are currently 4 Sears locations in Ottawa.  The location at Rideau Centre closed in 2012.  Given the recent problems, the closure of another location is a real possibility.  However, I think that Sears will hang on, at least for 2015.  Even if it enters creditor protection, the current stores will probably continue as Sears.  Declines of this sort take more than a year.

SC Extradition Appeal

Q20: Will the Supreme Court strike down the extradition order of Anthony Barnaby and David Caplin?
Yes: 35%
No: 65%

Barnaby and Caplin, who are Canadian citizens (as far as I can tell), are accused of murdering a pair of women in New Hampshire in 1988.  They faced three trials in 1989-1990, all of which ended in hung juries.  Prosecutors there are trying to extradite them for a fourth trial.  The Quebec Court of Appeal struck down that extradition order.  The Supreme Court is hearing the government's appeal to reinstate the order.  Hearings started on January 13.

The nature of Supreme Court cases is that there is no obvious result (or else the Supreme Court would never have heard the case).  However, I think the Supreme Court will uphold the extradition order; my impression is that extradition orders are rarely overturned.  The case of Hassan Diab might be relevant here.  If the Court wanted to strike down the order, it could have just not heard the appeal.

Terrorism in Canada

Q18: Will there be a lethal terrorist attack in Canada in 2015?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Definition note: "lethal", in this context, means that the attack results in the death of at least one person who is not responsible for the attack.  "Terrorist attack" should be construed broadly.  The attacks on October 20 and 22 of last year would have qualified under this definition, as would the attack on PQ leader Pauline Marois in September 2012, as well as all the lethal attacks on this list.  The daycare shooting in Gatineau in 2013 would not count)

The terrorist attacks in October, together with the more recent attacks in France and Australia, have increased the perceived risk of a terrorist attack in Canada.  Looking at the broader historical record, the situation is less clear.  From the Wikipedia list of terrorist incidents in Canada, since 1980, there have been lethal terrorist attacks in 1982, 1984 (2 incidents), 1985 (2 incidents), 1998, 2012, and 2014 (2 incidents).  So there have been attacks in about 17% of years.  Admittedly, this number does not take into account the relative timing of years (the attack in 1982 counts for as much as the ones in 2014).  Assuming the relevance of a year decays with a half-life of 5 years, I get a 25% estimate for 2015, which I will use.

The risk of Islamic terrorism may be elevated due to recent attacks.  This is taken into account by my discounting procedure.  It is relevant here that there were no successful Islamist attacks in Canada following the 9/11 attacks, although the risk level was elevated then as well.

Target Leaving Canada

This is a question I had prepared on Sunday to release next Tuesday.  It has resolved (to yes) before I got the chance to post it.  Here is my original planned post:

Will Target Canada announce it is leaving the Canadian market in 2015?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%

According to this article, there has been some speculation that Target will exit the Canadian market in 2015, due to disappointing sales.  According to the Motley Fool, "The company has indicated it plans to review its future in Canada early in the new year" (I am not sure how reliable this information is).    Although Target leaving Canada is a definite possibility, I think it will probably not happen, at least in 2015.  Target has already incurred substantial costs to enter Canada, and that will dissuade them from leaving quickly.  It would also have to incur substantial costs to exit early.

Supreme Court Assisted Suicide

Q13: Will the Supreme Court overturn the Canadian criminal code statute against assisted suicide?
Yes: 50%
No: 50%
(Definition note: A partial overturning of the law counts as a "yes")

The Supreme Court is currently deliberating the Carter case (see coverage here).  The plaintiffs in that case would like the court to overturn the current law against assisted suicide.  Based on media stories, it is not clear what the decision will be.  There was a previous (rather close) decision in 1993 which confirmed the current law.

I am very unsure how this case will be decided, so am going to give equal odds to both outcomes.

Keystone XL Approval

Q10: Will a US Federal bill approving the Keystone XL pipeline become law in 2015?
Yes: 20%
No: 80%

Republicans in the US House of Representatives and Senate have introduced a bill to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.  The bill is opposed by most Democrats and Obama.  Obama has threatened to use his presidential veto if the bill is passed.  The bill appears to have enough support in Congress to be passed by both houses of Congress, but not to override the presidential veto.

I do not think that any bill approving the pipeline will become law.  Obama has never supported the pipeline, and probably will continue in that stance (despite the recent Nebraska decision in favour of the pipeline).  The Republicans will not be able to override the presidential veto.  Also, low oil prices might decrease supply sufficiently to make the pipeline uneconomic (at least given probable delays).