Saturday, 5 September 2015

Egyptian Parliamentary Election

Which bloc will win the most seats in Egypt's upcoming parliamentary elections?
For the Love of Egypt: 35%
Al-Nour Party: 25%
Reawakening of Egypt: 10%
Egyptian Front: 5%
Some other party or bloc: 25%

Egyptian parliamentary elections are scheduled for later this year (see articles here and here).  These will be the first elections after the overthrow of former President Mohammed Morsi by the military.  There are a large number of parties running (see Wikipedia article here).  There do not seem to be any recent opinion polls about the parties, and previous election results are not that helpful (the Islamist Freedom and Justice Party, which won the last election, has been banned in the interim).

The major blocs seem to be the Al-Nour Party (which was second in the last election) and For the Love of Egypt (which contains the New Wafd Party and the Free Egyptians Party, both of which did reasonably well in the last election).  The Al-Nour Party seems to be the main Islamist party, while the For the Love of Egypt seems to be the main liberal party.  Of the more minor parties, Reawakening of Egypt and Egyptian Front seem to be mainly nationalist alliances.

Given the number of parties and the volatility of Egyptian politics, I am not very confident about my predictions in these elections.  It is quite possible that a new party (or a party that I overlooked) could win the election.  The current government may try to sway the vote for or against certain parties (the Al-Nour Party is a likely target in this regard).

(Name changes and changes in composition do not matter for this question.  If a bloc ceases to exist, a prediction for that bloc counts as a prediction for the most significant members of that bloc, if that can be determined.  The result of the election is all that matters for this question, even if that result (for example) is not accepted by the current government)


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