Tuesday, 29 September 2015

Post-Election Confidence Motion

Before the end of April 2016, will the government of Canada lose a confidence vote?
Yes: 15%

There has been some speculation that, if the Conservatives form the next government, they might very quickly lose a confidence motion (see article here).  Both the Liberals and the NDP have said that they would try to bring down a Conservative government at the earliest opportunity, although the Liberals have said that they will not cooperate with the NDP.  A new government has never lost its first confidence vote in Canadian history, although this almost happened in 2008, when the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition was formed.

The Conservatives are the only party that are likely to lose a confidence motion if they form the government.  The Liberals will likely support the NDP if the NDP form the next government, and vice versa.  Even if the Conservatives do form the next government, they are still somewhat unlikely to lose a confidence motion; the party that brings them down at that point might be seen as doing so illegitimately.  The most likely situation for the Conservatives to lose a confidence vote is where they form the government but don't have a plurality of seats.

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