Will the next government of Canada be formed by the party that wins the plurality of seats in the next election?
Yes: 93%
(If no party wins a plurality of seats (because there is a tie), this question will be voided)
Given the closeness of the current federal election, there has been some speculation that the party that gets a plurality of seats might not form the next government. The most likely way that this might happen is if the Conservatives place in a close 2nd or 3rd, but are asked to form the government due to incumbency. It is also possible that the Liberals and NDP could pre-emptively form a coalition if the Conservatives win a plurality, and thus form the next government.
I think that the party that forms the next government is still overwhelmingly likely to be the party with the plurality of seats; a government that took power without winning a plurality might be seen as illegitimate. There is also a fair chance that a single party will win a majority or near-majority of seats, in which case they will certainly form the next government.
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