Wednesday, 30 September 2015

Next Government Plurality

Will the next government of Canada be formed by the party that wins the plurality of seats in the next election?
Yes: 93%
(If no party wins a plurality of seats (because there is a tie), this question will be voided)

Given the closeness of the current federal election, there has been some speculation that the party that gets a plurality of seats might not form the next government.  The most likely way that this might happen is if the Conservatives place in a close 2nd or 3rd, but are asked to form the government due to incumbency.  It is also possible that the Liberals and NDP could pre-emptively form a coalition if the Conservatives win a plurality, and thus form the next government.

I think that the party that forms the next government is still overwhelmingly likely to be the party with the plurality of seats; a government that took power without winning a plurality might be seen as illegitimate.  There is also a fair chance that a single party will win a majority or near-majority of seats, in which case they will certainly form the next government.

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