By the end of 2016, will the end of the Good Judgement Open Tournament be announced?
Yes: 25%
(If the tournament is actually closed by the end of 2016, then this question will resolve as a yes. If the announcement of the closure of the tournament is conditional (e.g. on number of forecasters) then this question will close if the tournament does actually close at the time specified. Announcements that the tournament will close after the end of 2017 do not count for this question. Temporary interruptions before the end of 2016 are also not sufficient.)
The Good Judgment Open Tournament is a recently launched forecasting tournament, based on the Good Judgment Project (see site here, and Wikipedia article here). There have been no announcements about how long the tournament will last, but no questions currently in the tournament close after March 1st, 2017 (and only one question closes that far in the future).
The success of the tournament may depend on the success of the parent company, Good Judgment Inc. If the parent company is unable to find business, the tournament might close down fairly quickly. Good Judgment Inc. does not appear to be dependant on a single source of funding, which means it is not as vulnerable as it might be. Still, the future of the tournament is fairly uncertain; it is quite possible that it will close down after the current set of questions end.
No comments:
Post a Comment