Guatemalan Election v2

Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Manuel Baldizón: 40%
Jimmy Morales: 30%
Sandra Torres: 15%
Someone else: 15%

The Guatemalan Presidential election (which I had previously posted about here) will take place this Sunday.  The current President, Otto Pérez Molina, who is inelgible to run, resigned recently due to a corruption scandal.  The main three contenders seem to be Jimmy Morales, Manuel Baldizón (leading the main right-wing party), and Sandra Torres (leading the main left-wing party).  According to this article, the leading candidate is still Manuel Baldizón, although he is fading.  From the polls here, it seems to be mainly a race between Baldizón and Morales, with Torres in third, and other candidates well back.  I am increasing my odds for Morales (who I didn't include last time), and decreasing them slightly for Baldizón.  I am also eliminating Alejandro Sinibaldi from my list, since he has declined the nomination.  Some of the minor candidates do remarkably well in some (possibly shady) polls, so I am giving a relatively large weight to "Someone else".