NDP Finance Minister

If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next finance minister?
Nathan Cullen: 20%
Peggy Nash: 20%
Any Other Western MP: 10%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 25%
Any Quebec MP: 25%
(This question will only count if the NDP form the next government.  For the purposes of this question, the NDP will form the government if the prime minister belongs to the NDP.  "Western" means MB,SK,AB,BC, and the territories)

There has been some speculation about who will be in cabinet if the NDP form the next government (see story here).  The most recent NDP finance critics have been BC MP Nathan Cullen and Ontario MP Peggy Nash.

My sense is that, although Cullen and Nash are the most likely candidates to become finance minister, they are not overwhelming favourites.  Jim Flaherty, the first Conservative finance minister, only became an MP in the 2006 election, and thus was not finance critic before becoming finance minister.  Many other finance ministers seem to have been unsuccessful challengers in previous leadership races (as both Cullen and Nash were).

Regional considerations are often important in selecting cabinet ministers.  According to Poll Tracker. 23% of NDP seats are expected to be in the west, 27% in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and 50% in Quebec.  The total seat split is 32%/45%/23%.  The NDP will have more MPs to choose from in Quebec, but most of those MPs will be less experienced than those in other parts of the country.  I think the likelihood of selecting a finance minister from each region will be approximately proportional to the total number of seats (or total population) in that region.