Wednesday, 2 September 2015

Questions Resolved in August: Other

  • Reform Act C-586 has resolved for "yes", as the reform act received royal assent in late June (I missed this at the time).  I said that this had a 25% of happening, which was probably fairly reasonable given the fate of other similar bills stalled in the Senate.
  • Mobilicity Acquistion has resolved for "Rogers", which I said had a 15% chance of happening.  I probably overestimated the chance that Mobilicity would be acquired by Telus, and underestimated the chance it would be acquired by Rogers.
  • Simcoe North By-Election Date has resolved for "yes", as a by-election is being held tomorrow in Simcoe North.  I said there was a 65% chance of a by-election in 2015.
  • Ottawa Cleaners Strike has resolved for "Not before the end of 2015", as the cleaners have agreed to a new contract.  I said this had a 65% chance of happening.
  • Hugo Award Best Novel 2015 has resolved for The Three-Body Problem, which I said had a 15% chance of winning. This was the non-slate book that I thought was least likely to win (and in fact it was not in the top 5 nominated books, and was only on the ballot because two other authors declined their nominations).
  • Korean DMZ Agreement has resolved for "yes", as North Korea and South Korea reached an agreement after talks lasting several days.  I said this had a 60% chance of happening, which might have been too low.

No comments:

Post a Comment