Tuesday, 1 September 2015

Question Resolved in August: Election-Related

A number of questions were resolved in August because of the call of the federal election:

  • Federal Election Date (and Federal Election Date v2) were resolved for "On or after October 1, 2015" (and "No").  I originally said a election in October had a 70% chance of happening, which I later increased to 90% in April.  Both of these estimates seem reasonable; there was a lot of speculation early in the year about an early election.
  • Writ Date Federal Election (and Writ Date Federal Election v2) have resolved for "Before August 15th".  I originally said that a writ date that early had a 15% chance of happening, which I later increased to 30%.  Both of these estimates might have been a bit too low.  I may have put too much credence in the relatively short length of previous campaigns.
  • Single Sports Betting has resolved for "No", as the single-event betting law has died in the Senate.  I said this had a 75% chance of happening.
  • Remembrance Day Holiday has resolved for "No", as the proposed law to make Remembrance Day a legal holiday has died in the House of Commons.  I said that it had a 85% of failing.

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