Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Jimmy Morales: 65%
Sandra Torres: 35%
The first round of the Guatemalan Presidential Election resulted in Morales in first place with 24% of the vote, and Torres in second place with about 20% of the vote (Baldizón was just behind Torres). Morales and Torres will face each other in a run-off election, to be held on October 25th. Given the small lead for Morales in the first round, he seems more likely to win the run-off then Torres. Also, Baldizón supporters are probably more likely to support Morales (who is on the right side of the political spectrum, like Baldizón), then Torres (who is on the left side of the political spectrum).
Showing posts with label Central America. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Central America. Show all posts
Saturday, 3 October 2015
Friday, 4 September 2015
Guatemalan Election v2
Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Manuel Baldizón: 40%
Jimmy Morales: 30%
Sandra Torres: 15%
Someone else: 15%
The Guatemalan Presidential election (which I had previously posted about here) will take place this Sunday. The current President, Otto Pérez Molina, who is inelgible to run, resigned recently due to a corruption scandal. The main three contenders seem to be Jimmy Morales, Manuel Baldizón (leading the main right-wing party), and Sandra Torres (leading the main left-wing party). According to this article, the leading candidate is still Manuel Baldizón, although he is fading. From the polls here, it seems to be mainly a race between Baldizón and Morales, with Torres in third, and other candidates well back. I am increasing my odds for Morales (who I didn't include last time), and decreasing them slightly for Baldizón. I am also eliminating Alejandro Sinibaldi from my list, since he has declined the nomination. Some of the minor candidates do remarkably well in some (possibly shady) polls, so I am giving a relatively large weight to "Someone else".
Manuel Baldizón: 40%
Jimmy Morales: 30%
Sandra Torres: 15%
Someone else: 15%
The Guatemalan Presidential election (which I had previously posted about here) will take place this Sunday. The current President, Otto Pérez Molina, who is inelgible to run, resigned recently due to a corruption scandal. The main three contenders seem to be Jimmy Morales, Manuel Baldizón (leading the main right-wing party), and Sandra Torres (leading the main left-wing party). According to this article, the leading candidate is still Manuel Baldizón, although he is fading. From the polls here, it seems to be mainly a race between Baldizón and Morales, with Torres in third, and other candidates well back. I am increasing my odds for Morales (who I didn't include last time), and decreasing them slightly for Baldizón. I am also eliminating Alejandro Sinibaldi from my list, since he has declined the nomination. Some of the minor candidates do remarkably well in some (possibly shady) polls, so I am giving a relatively large weight to "Someone else".
Sunday, 7 June 2015
Guatemalan Election
Q145: Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Manuel Baldizón: 45%
Alejandro Sinibaldi: 25%
Sandra Torres: 15%
Someone Else: 15%
The next Guatemalan Presidential election is scheduled for September 6th, with a possible second round on October 20th if no one gets more than 50% of the vote (see reference here). The incumbent, Otto Pérez Molina, of the PP party, is ineligible to run due to term limits. Manuel Baldizón, of the LIDER party, seems to be the frontrunner. His main competitor appears to be Alejandro Sinibaldi of the PP party, while Sandra Torres of the UNE party seems to be a third viable candidate. Polls from last year, of uncertain reliability, suggest that Baldizón has 44% support, Sinibaldi 33%, and Torres 16% (see Spanish site here).
Baldizón certainly seems most likely to win, followed by Sinibaldi and then Torres. It is also possible that none of the three candidates may win. This could happen some fourth party wins the election, or one of the three major parties nominates an unexpected candidate and then wins, I don't have a lot of confidence in forecasts about a place like Guatemala, since I am not very familiar with it.
Manuel Baldizón: 45%
Alejandro Sinibaldi: 25%
Sandra Torres: 15%
Someone Else: 15%
The next Guatemalan Presidential election is scheduled for September 6th, with a possible second round on October 20th if no one gets more than 50% of the vote (see reference here). The incumbent, Otto Pérez Molina, of the PP party, is ineligible to run due to term limits. Manuel Baldizón, of the LIDER party, seems to be the frontrunner. His main competitor appears to be Alejandro Sinibaldi of the PP party, while Sandra Torres of the UNE party seems to be a third viable candidate. Polls from last year, of uncertain reliability, suggest that Baldizón has 44% support, Sinibaldi 33%, and Torres 16% (see Spanish site here).
Baldizón certainly seems most likely to win, followed by Sinibaldi and then Torres. It is also possible that none of the three candidates may win. This could happen some fourth party wins the election, or one of the three major parties nominates an unexpected candidate and then wins, I don't have a lot of confidence in forecasts about a place like Guatemala, since I am not very familiar with it.
Sunday, 17 May 2015
Guatemalan President
Q126: Before September 1st 2015, will Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina leave office?
Yes: 15%
A recent corruption scandal in Guatemala has led to the resignation of the vice president. There have been large-scale protests and calls for the president to resign as well (see article here). Elections, for which the current president is ineligible, are to be held in early September.
My sense is that Molina will probably not resign as a result of the current protests. His connection to the corruption scandal seems to be fairly indirect, and the calls for him to resign fairly weak. He will be leaving office after the September election anyway.
Yes: 15%
A recent corruption scandal in Guatemala has led to the resignation of the vice president. There have been large-scale protests and calls for the president to resign as well (see article here). Elections, for which the current president is ineligible, are to be held in early September.
My sense is that Molina will probably not resign as a result of the current protests. His connection to the corruption scandal seems to be fairly indirect, and the calls for him to resign fairly weak. He will be leaving office after the September election anyway.
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