- Mohamed Fahmy Release has resolved for "Between April 1st and December 31,2015", which I said had a 50% chance of happening, which seems very reasonable.
- Green Leader TV Debate has resolved for "Yes", as Elizabeth May participated in the Maclean's debate in August. I said this had a 90% chance of happening, which might have been too high, since the English consortium debate she looked likely to be invited to did not ultimately take place.
- Guatemalan President has resolved for "No". Otto Perez Molina left office on September 3rd, which was just after the September 1st cutoff date for this question, which counts as a "No". I said that Molina had a 85% chance of staying in office until September 1st, which was too high given how close this question was to resolving to "yes".
- Baiji Oil Complex Capture has resolved for "Yes". Current news stories (see example here) talk about Iraqi forces trying to recapture Baiji, which suggests that the IS captured it. The capture seems to have taken place around the time I originally posted the question; a Guardian story from May 23 suggests that the IS had captured the refinery at that time. I said that the IS had a 50% chance of capturing the refinery, which might have been too low.
- Canada Interest Rate September has resolved for "Unchanged Rate" which I said had a 85% chance of happening. That number seems to be about right.
Thursday, 1 October 2015
Questions Resolved in September: Part 1
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Post-Mortem
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