Federal Election Voter Turnnout

What will voter turnout in the next federal election be?
Less than 55%: 15%
Between 55 and 60%: 60%
Between 60 and 65%: 20%
Greater than 65%: 5%

Voter turnout in Canadian federal elections has been on a long-term decline (see Wikipedia article here).  Based on the trend in voter turnout since 1993, turnout this year should be about 57.2%, with a standard error of 2.5%.  This would suggest an estimate of 19%-68%-13%-0% for the four categories I have listed.

I think that the average estimate is a bit too low; voter turnout has not decreased as rapidly in recent times as in the past (turnout was relatively good in the 2011 election, at 61.4%).  Turnout at advanced polls has been very strong (see story here).  Also, the close nature of this election might cause higher turnout (although this is not at all clear from past elections).  I think a 58% estimate for voter turnout might be appropriate. which changes the odds to 12%-67%-21%-0%.  I am also increasing odds for the extreme turnouts (less than 55% and greater than 65%), which are likely underestimated with the normal model I am using.